40447 Garden Heights Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$335,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2022 6,464 sqft lot Est $392k · 14% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 40447 Garden Heights. A beautiful two-story home offering 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms. This home not only offers the primary bedroom and en-suite located on the first floor, but an additional bedroom and full bathroom! This open floor plan is great for entertaining with the island kitchen overlooking the living room. Upstairs you will find a large game room with 2 spacious bedrooms and a full bathroom. Don't miss your covered back patio overlooking no back neighbors but one of the neighborhood ponds along with a walking path around it. In the garage you will find additional AC which is great to use this space as climate-controlled storage or an additional living spa

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Whole home generator
• Covered back patio

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• CLIMATE-CONTROLLED STORAGE
• WHOLE HOME GENERATOR
• SOLAR SCREENS
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-777 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $197,713 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.94%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,506
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40531 Slough Way	0.31mi	4/3.0	3,005 (+6%)	4mo	$414,990	$138	72
15027 Baikal Teal Ter	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,558 (-10%)	3mo	$374,900	$147	71
15023 Baikal Teal Ter	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,576 (-9%)	8mo	$369,900	$144	65
40762 Rosemary Rain Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,487 (-12%)	2mo	$300,000	$121	64
40722 Barley Straw Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,681 (-6%)	1mo	$349,990	$131	63
40743 Barley Straw Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,681 (-6%)	2mo	$348,990	$130	62
40931 Seasoned Oak Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,561 (-10%)	7mo	$329,990	$129	61
15447 Park Perch Pl	0.42mi	4/2.5	2,502 (-12%)	1mo	$329,900	$132	57
40530 Red Hickory Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,561 (-10%)	7mo	$330,490	$129	57
15122 Bank Swallow Pl	0.25mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,424 (-15%)	6mo	$364,985	$151	54
14818 Whistling Duck Ln	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,488 (-12%)	6mo	$499,900	$201	50
40602 Lacey Wood Ct	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,131 (+10%)	1mo	$875,000	$279	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $126,616
• Equity at exit: $301,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $400,340
• Equity at exit: $650,831

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,537 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$822 /mo · $9,861/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,520

Max offer price $197,713

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-588	-5% $-682	+0% $-777	+5% $-872	+10% $-967
Rent	-10% $-978	-5% $-877	+0% $-777	+5% $-677	+10% $-577
Rate	-1.0pp $-608	-0.5pp $-692	base $-777	+0.5pp $-864	+1.0pp $-952

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	0.23mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.29mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.33mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $335,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $335,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,861 · $822/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,861 · $822/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$9,861
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$15,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $335,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+331.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,861 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.