5245 Butternut Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28304

$188,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot Est $200k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute little ranch style home. New roof, new carpet, new paint. This will not stay on the market long.

Key facts

• Brick rancher
• Granite counter tops
• Two sheds

Tags

• BRICK RANCHER
• KITCHEN DINING ROOM COMBO
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TWO SHEDS
• EXTERIOR STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: LAFAYETTE V
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Granite countertops
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($397/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherwood Park Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,190 of 1,410 statewide, top 86%, 279 students, 99% FRL); Douglas Byrd Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #422 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 935 students, 100% FRL); Douglas Byrd High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 940 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,350 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,773
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5245 Butternut Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,326 (+0%)	0mo	$188,000	$142	99
5314 Hornbeam Rd	0.20mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (-6%)	3mo	$166,500	$133	71
5709 Charbonneau Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (+0%)	2mo	$200,000	$151	65
5233 Pala Verde Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-5%)	4mo	$215,500	$172	62
2012 Ironwood Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,186 (-10%)	0mo	$179,900	$152	56
5695 Juneberry Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (-5%)	1mo	$220,000	$176	54
5720 Pepperbush Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,374 (+4%)	4mo	$200,000	$146	53
2167 Quail Ridge Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,420 (+7%)	2mo	$205,000	$144	51
5717 Charbonneau Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,180 (-11%)	1mo	$199,900	$169	49
2204 Mossy Cup Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,183 (-11%)	4mo	$131,300	$111	48
2502 Nobie St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (+13%)	4mo	$205,000	$137	37
5219 Redwood Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,124 (-15%)	2mo	$187,000	$166	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-28,084
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,620
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28304

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,223/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $188,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $86	+0% $33	+5% $-20	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-31	+0% $33	+5% $97	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $81	base $33	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	15d	1	0.24mi
5151 Queensdale Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,295	$1.17	25d	1	0.24mi
5721 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,575	$1.50	25d	1	0.53mi
5744 Randleman St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1171	$1,395	$1.19	25d	1	0.59mi
1819 Cawdor Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,600	$1.02	15d	1	0.65mi
4630 Canterbury Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,350	$1.08	25d	1	0.68mi
5632 Birch Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1228	$1,250	$1.02	25d	1	0.68mi
1815 Paisley Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,595	$1.06	25d	1	0.69mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	25d	1	0.71mi
5032 Shimmer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,700	$1.15	15d	1	0.71mi
1583 Winnabow Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,100	$1.35	25d	1	0.74mi
5595 Quietwood Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,395	$1.08	25d	1	0.82mi
1927 Shiloh Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1606	$1,600	$1.00	15d	1	0.87mi
2640 Latrobe Ave Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,815	$1.68	15d	30	0.90mi
2524 Penny Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,400	$1.05	25d	1	0.91mi
5812 Shenandoah Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,599	$0.89	25d	1	0.92mi
2513 Owlands Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,245	$1.37	15d	1	0.94mi
1701 Carter Baron Pl Unit 211 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,700	$1.31	25d	1	0.98mi
909 Sandalwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1346	$1,595	$1.18	25d	1	1.02mi
5706 McDougal Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,650	$1.04	25d	1	1.05mi
2543 Painters Mill Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,600	$1.39	15d	1	1.06mi
1715 Arrow Ridge Way Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,550	$1.27	15d	1	1.07mi
821 Sandalwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	15d	1	1.08mi
2161 Bingham Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	15d	1	1.11mi
1879 Frankie Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,375	$1.25	25d	1	1.13mi
1401 Carnsmore Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,575	$1.09	25d	1	1.13mi
2517 Forest Lodge Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	25d	1	1.33mi
3001 Stone Carriage Cir Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$1,700	$1.55	15d	12	1.35mi
4935 Walnut Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,200	$1.17	15d	1	1.36mi
5200 Cypress Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1210	$1,250	$1.03	25d	1	1.39mi
4909 Walnut Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,500	$1.26	25d	1	1.40mi
4101 Coventry Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,150	$1.02	15d	1	1.43mi
1216 Weeping Willow Way Unit 229 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	960	$969	$1.01	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   status Active
3. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-12
   price $188,000
5. 2025-12-27
   price $198,500
6. 2025-11-03
   listed $205,500 Active
7. 2022-03-29
   soldstatus $152,000
8. 2022-03-28
   soldstatus $152,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Cute little ranch style home. New roof, new carpet, new paint. This will not stay on the market long.

9. 2022-03-25
   listed $152,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Cute little ranch style home. New roof, new carpet, new paint. This will not stay on the market long.

10. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus $50,500
11. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $50,161 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    -Check out this great brick home in Lafayette Village. Nice kitchen with tile back splash. Fenced in back yard. This home is to be sold AS IS.

12. 2018-07-16
    listed $49,900 142-char remark

    Show marketing remark (142 chars)

    -Check out this great brick home in Lafayette Village. Nice kitchen with tile back splash. Fenced in back yard. This home is to be sold AS IS.

13. 2004-03-19
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,223 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,223 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,223
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$2,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 37,140
• Household income: $58,563
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1667.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.90%
• Current HPI: 215.927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+172.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $188,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $198,500 LPRMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $205,500 LPRMLS
• 2022-03-29 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-28 Sold (MLS) $152,000 LPRMLS
• 2022-03-25 Listed $152,000 LPRMLS
• 2018-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $50,161 LPRMLS
• 2018-07-16 Listed $49,900 LPRMLS
• 2004-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,223 · +44.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.