512 Morning Spring Dr · East Flat Rock, NC 28731

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

My home is located in a 55 plus community in Flat Rock, NC in a family owned park. It is 3 bedroom 2 full bathrooms the home has been remodeled and is very beautiful on a corner lot. It has new kitchen cabinets, all appliances, flooring, gas stove, large dinning area for entertaining family and friends with a large living room with gas fireplace. The sun room is a 16x10 3 season finished room great for relaxing. Our large bedroom has walk in closet, large master bathroom with walk in shower. We have a nice large storage/workshop to have with storage under the home which is brick under pinned. Our home has a lot of storage and space to enjoy along with 2 carports for extra parking. The com

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• New kitchen cabinets
• Gas stove

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• GAS STOVE
• LARGE DINING AREA
• GAS FIREPLACE
• 3 SEASON FINISHED ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.5% in East Flat Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#536 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #64 of 178 in NC (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillandale Elementary (math 35% / reading 41%, grade F, #759 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 490 students, 68% FRL); Flat Rock Middle (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #222 of 475 statewide, top 49%, 706 students, 70% FRL); East Henderson High (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B-, #179 of 535 statewide, top 34%, 965 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 46% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,534 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.06%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $17,990
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $69,754
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28731

• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $478/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,118

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $747	-5% $705	+0% $663	+5% $620	+10% $578
Rent	-10% $508	-5% $585	+0% $663	+5% $740	+10% $817
Rate	-1.0pp $738	-0.5pp $700	base $663	+0.5pp $624	+1.0pp $585

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Sharons Way East Flat Rock, NC	3.0	2.0	1216	$2,100	$1.73	25d	1	1.43mi
18 Grove Hills Dr Flat Rock, NC	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,800	$1.61	15d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $478 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$744/yr (+$62/mo · 155.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$478
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $5,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,397
• After-tax cash flow: $6,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702100
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,101
• Composite: 42.5/100
• National rank: #3206
• State rank: #64 of 178 in NC

Livability — East Flat Rock

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #19704

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Flat Rock, NC
• City population: 4,373
• Population (ZIP): 9,075

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,075 people
• By 2030: 129,690 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 139,898 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 148,298 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 163,980 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 166,962 · +34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 42.1% · R 56.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.82%
• Current HPI: 188.1389
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $149,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $478 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.