1505 La Perla Dr · Riverbank, CA 95357

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 35 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $117k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to Sell! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath manufactured home offering 1,216 Sq. Ft. of comfortable living space in the desirable 55+ Morningside Mobile Home Park community. Built in 2003, this home features an open floor plan, spacious living areas, and a peaceful covered patio perfect for relaxing and enjoying the quiet neighborhood. Perfectly located near shopping, dining, and the new Costco Center with Hobby Lobby and other shops coming soon, including a Sutter Urgent Care. This home combines comfort, convenience, and easy living. Don't miss the opportunity to own in one of Modesto's sought-after communities. Refrigerator, washer and dryer are included with

Key facts

• Near costco center
• Open floor plan
• Near dining

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR COSTCO CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Morningside Park (directions available); Postal code 95357, Modesto, CA
• Financial info: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double wide; Built in 2003; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Composition roof; Fleetwood Homes of CA, Inc. make
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Storage area; Shed(s); Front yard landscaping; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Skylight/solar tube; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Covered deck; Dining and living room combined; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Marble counters; Living room with additional feature (other)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.0% in Riverbank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#757 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: schools F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.41%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4812 Mahi Mahi Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,358 (+12%)	6mo	$100,000	$74	73
1532 Sailfish Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+11%)	16mo	$130,000	$96	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $35,079
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $99,797
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95357

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $922	-5% $883	+0% $843	+5% $803	+10% $763
Rent	-10% $679	-5% $761	+0% $843	+5% $925	+10% $1,007
Rate	-1.0pp $901	-0.5pp $872	base $843	+0.5pp $813	+1.0pp $783

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	22d	1	1.05mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	1.30mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	14d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-02-11
    historical
18. 2025-06-25
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $8,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,114
• After-tax cash flow: $8,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverbank

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #22107

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,593
• Population (ZIP): 14,283

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.94%
• Current HPI: 283.9315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B