2712 Oak Hammock Dr · Panama City, FL 32401

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 225 Days on market

Built 1995 $182/sqft · 10% above area Est $172k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduction, Great starter home or rental. Very nice duplex single unit, Very clean and well maintained. Appliances are in very good condition. .Nice quiet neighborhood, centrally located. This would be great for first time buyers or for the investor. it has been used as a rental in the past and produced excellent rental results.

Key facts

• Built 1995
• Listed 225 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-664/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 258 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $189k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,322 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,808
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 10.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
912 Nottingham Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+6%)	16mo	$150,000	$136	56
524 N James Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	984 (-5%)	14mo	$195,000	$198	54
816 Forestdale Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+12%)	13mo	$205,000	$176	50
517 N Church Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+10%)	12mo	$265,000	$232	46
2205 E 6th St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	19mo	$235,000	$204	37
519 Spring Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,183 (+14%)	16mo	$255,000	$216	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-38,108
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-53,147
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32401

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,929/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $179,226

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
725 Sherman Ave Unit B Panama City, FL	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	21d	1	0.65mi
3719 E 8th Ct Panama City, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,300	$1.37	21d	1	0.77mi
2623 E 16th St Unit A Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	21d	1	0.78mi
1637 N James Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,275	$1.31	21d	1	0.86mi
1401 Transmitter Rd Unit 15 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	13d	1	1.05mi
237 Helen Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	21d	1	1.13mi
3914 E 11th St #301 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	21d	1	1.15mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Price Reduction, Great starter home or rental. Very nice duplex single unit, Very clean and well maintained. Appliances are in very good condition. .Nice quiet neighborhood, centrally located. This would be great for first time buyers or for the investor. it has been used as a rental in the past and produced excellent rental results.

2. 2026-03-22
   price $189,000 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Price Reduction, Great starter home or rental. Very nice duplex single unit, Very clean and well maintained. Appliances are in very good condition. .Nice quiet neighborhood, centrally located. This would be great for first time buyers or for the investor. it has been used as a rental in the past and produced excellent rental results.

3. 2026-02-20
   price $193,000 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Price Reduction, Great starter home or rental. Very nice duplex single unit, Very clean and well maintained. Appliances are in very good condition. .Nice quiet neighborhood, centrally located. This would be great for first time buyers or for the investor. it has been used as a rental in the past and produced excellent rental results.

4. 2025-12-11
   historical $1,550
5. 2025-11-14
   price $192,000 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Price Reduction, Great starter home or rental. Very nice duplex single unit, Very clean and well maintained. Appliances are in very good condition. .Nice quiet neighborhood, centrally located. This would be great for first time buyers or for the investor. it has been used as a rental in the past and produced excellent rental results.

6. 2025-10-05
   listed $198,000 Active 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   Price Reduction, Great starter home or rental. Very nice duplex single unit, Very clean and well maintained. Appliances are in very good condition. .Nice quiet neighborhood, centrally located. This would be great for first time buyers or for the investor. it has been used as a rental in the past and produced excellent rental results.

7. 2025-08-13
   listed $1,550
8. 2021-12-14
   historical
9. 2021-12-14
   historical
10. 2021-12-14
    historical
11. 2021-09-14
    soldstatus $126,000
12. 2021-07-16
    listed $135,000
13. 2016-06-30
    soldstatus $45,500
14. 2016-05-16
    listed $45,000
15. 2008-08-11
    listed $162,500
16. 2006-05-27
    listed $174,000
17. 2005-09-28
    listed $174,000
18. 2004-11-15
    soldstatus $128,000
19. 2004-10-01
    listed $127,000
20. 1995-06-01
    soldstatus $83,600
21. 1995-01-01
    soldstatus $15,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,929 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,929 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,929
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,529
• − Management: −$1,529
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,947
• Household income: $52,523
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.12%
• Current HPI: 290.3312
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1143.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $193,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Rental Removed $1,550 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $192,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Listed $198,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed for Rent $1,550 TENANTTURNER2
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) $126,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-07-16 Listed $135,000 CPARMLS
• 2016-06-30 Sold (MLS) $45,500 CPARMLS
• 2016-05-16 Listed $45,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-08-11 Listed $162,500 CPARMLS
• 2006-05-27 Listed $174,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-09-28 Listed $174,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-11-15 Sold (MLS) $128,000 CPARMLS
• 2004-10-01 Listed $127,000 CPARMLS
• 1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,600 Public Records
• 1995-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,929 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.