1503 Esparza Pl · The Villages, FL 32159

$294,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1998 5,612 sqft lot Est $331k · 11% under $204/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained, ONE OWNER, Catalina 3 Model home, offered TURNKEY. Facing west, this home boasts a spacious open living and dining area with vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light. 6 Pocket Doors make this home very efficient! The kitchen features custom white wood cabinetry, modern appliances, a breakfast bar, and a large pantry, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Three comfortable bedrooms include a primary suite with a walk-in closet and a dual vanity en-suite bath. Enjoy year-round comfort in the enclosed lanai, enhanced with heating and air even a switch to turn off and conserve that energy, privacy shades, and views of the landscaped backyard.

Key facts

• Large pantry
• Vaulted ceilings
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CUSTOM WHITE WOOD CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LARGE PANTRY
• ENCLOSED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey furnished option indicated; CDD present; Lot roughly 0.13 acres (approx. 61 x 92)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; Association amenities include pool, recreational facilities, tennis, pickleball, basketball and shuffleboard courts, playground, fence restrictions, golf and dog park; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Total monthly fees approximately $204; Total annual fees approximately $2,448; Association fees include pool and recreational facilities; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Ground-level parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing west; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding over frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder model: Catalina 3; Built as a residence
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed Florida room; Front porch; Rear porch; Patio; Sliding doors; Rain gutters; Mature landscaping with trees; Near golf course; Paved driveway and paved road access; Publicly maintained road; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments (blinds)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-702/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,481/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $294k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,064 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $331,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1312 Landeros Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	3mo	$331,000	$238	85
1504 Avila Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+4%)	1mo	$355,000	$244	80
1506 LA Frontera Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+10%)	2mo	$330,000	$216	80
2007 Claudio Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	4mo	$257,500	$185	71
2005 Claudio Ln	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,389 (-0%)	0mo	$317,000	$228	70
1148 Chaparral Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	0mo	$465,000	$334	68
2027 Cipriano Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,392 (0%)	3mo	$306,000	$220	67
2016 Claudio Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+10%)	3mo	$310,000	$203	54
2101 Barbosa Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+11%)	4mo	$400,000	$258	54
1404 Almanza Dr	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-11%)	3mo	$353,000	$286	48
1216 Chaparral Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,239 (-11%)	3mo	$292,000	$236	44
1215 San Bernadino Way	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	4mo	$360,500	$289	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-48,741
• Equity at exit: $43,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-36,240
• Equity at exit: $25,420

Cash invested: $82,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $283,664

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $25	+0% $-59	+5% $-142	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-156	+0% $-59	+5% $39	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $16	base $-59	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,500
• Closing costs: $8,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	23d	1	0.04mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	23d	1	0.54mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.57mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	0.59mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	23d	1	0.84mi
13740 Lead LN The Villages, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,150	$2.09	23d	38	0.88mi
13765 NE 136th Loop Lady Lake, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$1,991	$1.85	23d	36	0.95mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	23d	1	0.98mi
1401 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1552	$1,999	$1.29	26d	1	0.99mi
17951 SE 115th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	16d	1	1.02mi
1532 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$2,950	$2.70	26d	1	1.06mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	23d	1	1.09mi
1430 W Schwartz Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,500	$1.82	26d	1	1.10mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	23d	1	1.21mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	23d	1	1.22mi
722 Camino del Rey Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	1.25mi
1522 Yucatan Way Unit 1525265P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$1,829	$1.06	23d	1	1.28mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	23d	1	1.28mi
1614 Kiley Ct Unit 1545709P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$3,452	$2.17	18d	1	1.29mi
943 Mendoza Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$5,800	$4.57	26d	1	1.37mi
17408 SE 121st Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,850	$1.07	23d	1	1.45mi
613 Enconto St Unit 1525268P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,788	$1.63	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $294,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $294,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $294,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $294,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $294,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $294,000 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    price $299,000
18. 2026-04-10
    status Active
19. 2026-04-03
    listed $330,000 Active
20. 1998-09-04
    soldstatus $104,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,469
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,553
• Taxable loss: −$5,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,376
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+185.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $104,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,799 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.