22 Miguel Rd · El Cerro, NM 87031

$89,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · Other · 217 Days on market

Built 1983 0.54 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

Key facts

• Detached buildings
• Large kitchen
• 0.54 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• DETACHED BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#45 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Lunas Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #34 of 95 in NM (top 36%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.2%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 303 units permitted in Valencia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $620 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Valencia County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,936 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.03%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $15,726
• Equity at exit: $13,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $83,177
• Equity at exit: $7,756

Cash invested: $25,116 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87031

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 33.2%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$470
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,201/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $89,700

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $353	+0% $328	+5% $302	+10% $277
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $260	+0% $328	+5% $396	+10% $464
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $350	base $328	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,425
• Closing costs: $2,691
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,700 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,700 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,700 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,700 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $89,700 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,500 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,500 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,500 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,500 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,500 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $97,500 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

16. 2026-03-27
    price $105,800 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $115,000 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

18. 2026-01-27
    price $124,844 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

19. 2025-12-24
    price $135,700 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

20. 2025-11-12
    listed $150,800 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Come take a look at this great opportunity in Los Lunas! The home needs work but has potential! The home features spacious rooms, large kitchen with eat in area, detached buildings for your hobbies! Come take a look if you are looking for a fixer upper! Property is being sold as is. Home has signs of water/roof leaks there is some discoloration on ceiling and walls. Unknown if leaks are still active. Zoning to be verified by buyer if of importance. Per assessor home is an entombed single wide mobile home with additions. Assessor has home classified as single family residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,201 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,025
• − Property taxes: −$1,201
• − Insurance: −$5,567
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$2,609
• Taxable income: $2,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$714
• After-tax cash flow: $3,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Lunas Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501680
• Math proficiency: 20% —
• Reading proficiency: 34% —
• Median HH income: $44,438
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #12724
• State rank: #34 of 95 in NM

Livability — El Cerro

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #12261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cerro, NM
• County: Valencia County · 68,779 people
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 47,514
• Household income: $60,902
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Valencia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,788 people
• By 2030: 72,101 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 67,930 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 63,191 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 53,644 · -27.3%
• By 2100: 40,882 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 30% Two or more races 29% Native American 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Valencia

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 40.9% · R 57.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+9.6 2016: R+8.7 2012: D+2.5 2008: D+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.17%
• Current HPI: 201.0508
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.16%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-35.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $97,500 Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $105,800 Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $115,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $124,844 Southwest MLS
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $135,700 Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $150,800 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,201 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.