3634 Shirley · Orange, TX 77632

$40,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Poor condition 1.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the very end of a quiet dead-end road, this slice of land feels like your own hidden retreat. Surrounded by a natural border of mature trees the property offers a sense of privacy that's getting harder to find. With no restrictions, the possibilities here are wide open. The property does have a small house that needs to be torn down.

Key facts

• Sense of privacy
• Hidden retreat
• Quiet dead-end road

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• HIDDEN RETREAT
• NATURAL BORDER OF MATURE TREES
• SENSE OF PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax around $500

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Located in the Kinard Estate #1 subdivision; Sits on approximately 1.38 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($870 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #435 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 294 active listings in the ZIP; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.06%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $19,723
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $50,953
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77632

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $40,000 Active 350-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$836
• − Management: −$836
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,097
• After-tax cash flow: $3,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and demolition of the existing structure. The site needs to be cleared, leveled, and prepared for a new construction project. Improvements in landscaping, interior renovation, and structural repairs would significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major House demolition — The house needs to be torn down as per the listing remarks.
• Major Site preparation — The site needs to be cleared and leveled for a new construction project.
• Major Foundation repair — The foundation may need repair or replacement due to the poor condition of the exterior.
• Major Structural repairs — The structure may need significant repairs or replacement due to the poor condition of the exterior.
• Major Roof replacement — The roof is likely in poor condition and needs to be replaced.
• Major Interior repairs — The interior is likely in poor condition and needs to be completely renovated.
• Major Landscaping and curb appeal — The property is overgrown and needs landscaping to improve curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New construction — Building a new home on this property would significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would enhance the property's visual appeal and increase its value.
• Both Interior renovation — A complete interior renovation would improve the living space and increase the property's value for both resale and rental.
• Both Roof replacement — Replacing the roof would improve the property's structural integrity and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Foundation repair — Repairing the foundation would ensure the property's structural stability and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Exterior renovation — Renovating the exterior would improve the property's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Site preparation — Preparing the site for a new construction project would increase the property's value for both resale and rental.
• Both Structural repairs — Repairing the structure would ensure the property's structural integrity and increase its value for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping the property would improve its curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
House demolition · The house needs to be torn down as per the listing remarks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Site preparation · The site needs to be cleared and leveled for a new construction project.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation repair · The foundation may need repair or replacement due to the poor condition of the exterior.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Structural repairs · The structure may need significant repairs or replacement due to the poor condition of the exterior.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof replacement · The roof is likely in poor condition and needs to be replaced.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior repairs · The interior is likely in poor condition and needs to be completely renovated.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping and curb appeal · The property is overgrown and needs landscaping to improve curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New construction — Building a new home on this property would significantly increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal would enhance the property's visual appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Interior renovation — A complete interior renovation would improve the living space and increase the property's value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Replacing the roof would improve the property's structural integrity and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Foundation repair — Repairing the foundation would ensure the property's structural stability and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Exterior renovation — Renovating the exterior would improve the property's curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Site preparation — Preparing the site for a new construction project would increase the property's value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Structural repairs — Repairing the structure would ensure the property's structural integrity and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping the property would improve its curb appeal and increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Cypress-Mauriceville CISD
• NCES district ID: 4827690
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,483
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5473
• State rank: #435 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,976
• Household income: $74,418
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.96%
• Current HPI: 149.354
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $40,000 BBOR