340 Rambler Rd · Southold, NY 11971

$960,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1976 0.37 ac lot Est $1066k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set within the coveted private Terry Waters beach community in Southold, this beautiful three-bedroom, two-bath extended ranch offers relaxed coastal living in an enchanting, private setting. A welcoming entry opens to a spacious living room anchored by a classic brick fireplace, while the thoughtfully designed layout includes a primary bedroom with an ensuite bath, an additional bonus family room ideal for entertaining or everyday living, and a full basement providing ample storage or future potential. Outdoors, a three-season covered patio overlooks the lush, expansive backyard with generous room for a pool, creating the perfect backdrop for summer gatherings or quiet moments near the wat

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Advanced framing technique construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total (includes first-floor bedroom)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace (1)
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Entrance foyer; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $960k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $960k).
• Recommended offer: $946k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $269k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($946k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $960k implies a 475% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $945,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.92%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,065,900
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Summit Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,651 (-3%)	9mo	$783,000	$474	64
6980 N Bayview Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-3%)	9mo	$785,000	$476	64
55 Cedar Point West Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-3%)	12mo	$1,035,000	$627	57
5950 N Bayview Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-9%)	12mo	$1,375,000	$889	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $442,454
• Equity at exit: $143,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.30×
• Total profit: $1,155,037
• Equity at exit: $83,003

Cash invested: $268,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,034
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,665/yr
• Insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,089
• Net cashflow: $9,391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,582

Max offer price $960,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,934	-5% $9,663	+0% $9,391	+5% $9,119	+10% $8,848
Rent	-10% $7,853	-5% $8,622	+0% $9,391	+5% $10,160	+10% $10,929
Rate	-1.0pp $9,874	-0.5pp $9,635	base $9,391	+0.5pp $9,142	+1.0pp $8,889

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $240,000
• Closing costs: $28,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1355 Watersedge Way Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$19,500	$16.25	25d	1	0.38mi
1265 Brigantine Dr Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$9,000	$5.14	44d	1	0.85mi
2662 Paradise Shores Rd Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$25,000	$19.23	25d	1	1.11mi
1854 N Bayview Rd Southold, NY	2.0	2.5	1750	$15,000	$8.57	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $960,000 Active
3. 1995-11-30
   soldstatus $167,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,665 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,445 · $954/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,779/yr (+$398/mo · 71.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $233,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,775
• − Property taxes: −$6,665
• − Insurance: −$4,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,691
• − Management: −$18,691
• − Depreciation: −$27,927
• Taxable income: $103,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,740
• After-tax cash flow: $87,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+474.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $960,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,665 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.