360 Park Rd · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$310,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,401 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition 2.56 ac lot $129/sqft · 11% below area Est $349k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAKEFRONT - NO COMMUNITY! This historic 4 bed, 3 full-bath home sits on a 2.56 acre cleared parcel bordering Lake Kiel. It is the former home of Gabriel D (1818-1880) and Maurice H (1840-1887) Layton. Gabriel's life was depicted in the book, The Diary of Gabriel Layton and the Civil WarLetters of his Son: A Chronicle of life along the river in Delaware Township, 1859- 1869. Stone walls andfireplaces reflect the home's original, old charm. The large yard, front patio, deck, screened in porch and access to Kiel Lake (A. K. A Fawn Lake) for fishing, boating and swimming, provide year round enjoyment. It is definitely a place to enjoy nature and the natural beauty of Northeastern PA. It's all just a few minutes from the historic Borough of Milford, and less than two hours from Manhattan.

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Cleared parcel
• Screened in porch

Tags

• LAKEFRONT
• CLEARED PARCEL
• STONE WALLS
• FRONT PATIO
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• ACCESS TO KIEL LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.7% in Birchwood Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,229
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -11.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Lake Shore Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,112 (-12%)	3mo	$400,000	$189	56
152 Edgewater Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-7%)	1mo	$470,000	$211	51
110 Stag Ln	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,124 (-12%)	11mo	$280,000	$132	51
213 Myck Rd	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,150 (-10%)	12mo	$300,888	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $179,876
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $521,242
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,650/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,782

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
368 Wild Acres Dr Dingmans Ferry, PA	4.0	3.0	2262	$3,000	$1.33	1d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $310,000 Pending 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,000 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,000 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $310,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2025-12-08
    listed $390,000 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    LAKEFRONT - NO COMMUNITY! This historic 4 bed, 3 full-bath home sits on a 2.56 acre cleared parcel bordering Lake Kiel. It is the former home of Gabriel D (1818-1880) and Maurice H (1840-1887) Layton. Gabriel's life was depicted in the book, The Diary of Gabriel Layton and the Civil WarLetters of his Son: A Chronicle of life along the river in Delaware Township, 1859- 1869. Stone walls andfireplaces reflect the home's original, old charm. The large yard, front patio, deck, screened in porch and access to Kiel Lake (A. K. A Fawn Lake) for fishing, boating and swimming, provide year round enjoyment. It is definitely a place to enjoy nature and the natural beauty of Northeastern PA. It's all just a few minutes from the historic Borough of Milford, and less than two hours from Manhattan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$4,650
• − Insurance: −$2,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$3,010
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$722
• After-tax cash flow: $2,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, focusing on the kitchen and bathrooms, to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen countertops — pink countertops need replacement
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated fixtures need updating
• Minor exterior siding — white siding appears weathered
• Minor interior walls — paint peeling in some areas
• Minor windows — some windows appear old

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Both replace countertops and fixtures — new countertops and fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale replace windows — new windows improve energy efficiency and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · pink countertops need replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated fixtures need updating	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · white siding appears weathered	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · paint peeling in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
windows · some windows appear old	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$31,500–109,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both replace countertops and fixtures — new countertops and fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale replace windows — new windows improve energy efficiency and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-08 Listed $390,000 PWMLS