40671 Village Unit 13D · Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$3,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,045 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2002 $2/sqft · 99% below area $985/mo HOA · 29% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare & unique vacation home opportunity featuring the highly desirable 4th of July week. Own real estate, not points. Deeded, fractional ownership of a 3 bd/3 bath Villa at The Club in the Village of Big Bear Lake. This type of fractional ownership is no longer sold by the mgmt. It can only be purchased when an original owner sells their interest. You will have 28 nights a year of planned vacation time; 14 nights in summer & 14 in winter. More nights can be reserved based on availability whenever you like! Pay only for cleaning. Great for impromptu get-always free from usual home maintenance. If purchased, YOU will pay HOA fees of $2955.77 every 3 months and 1/10th of prop taxes for THIS Villa. Common ground taxes are included in the HOA. You can put up to 4 people on the deed. No pets unless service pet & no smoking. Cash only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 2002

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $3,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$674,667) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $3k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 579.4% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 528 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,393/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 209% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $980 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($3k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,290 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 96.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 579.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 2046.74%
• DSCR: 92.07
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $674,667
• List price: $3,500
• Delta: -99.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40671 Village Unit 10B	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,045 (0%)	10mo	$4,500	$2	92
636 Talmadge Rd	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,042 (-0%)	11mo	$740,000	$362	63
40355 Cliff Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,902 (-7%)	9mo	$650,000	$342	54
539 Lakewood Ln	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,212 (+8%)	6mo	$740,000	$335	49
41073 Pennsylvania Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,907 (-7%)	10mo	$498,500	$261	47
41191 Pennsylvania Ave	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,910 (-7%)	9mo	$769,000	$403	44
450 Temple Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	2,277 (+11%)	5mo	$890,000	$391	43
473 Vista Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-7%)	12mo	$569,900	$299	41
40211 Guinan Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,820 (-11%)	12mo	$615,000	$338	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 99.58×
• Total profit: $96,604
• Equity at exit: $522

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 190.22×
• Total profit: $185,440
• Equity at exit: $303

Cash invested: $980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92315

• Rents YoY: -3.5%
• Active inventory: 528
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,393 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$18
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4 /mo · $52/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$985
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $1,672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $3,500

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,674	-5% $1,673	+0% $1,672	+5% $1,670	+10% $1,669
Rent	-10% $1,403	-5% $1,537	+0% $1,672	+5% $1,806	+10% $1,940
Rate	-1.0pp $1,673	-0.5pp $1,672	base $1,672	+0.5pp $1,671	+1.0pp $1,670

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $875
• Closing costs: $105
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Pine Meadow Ct Big Bear Lake, CA	4.0	3.5	2605	$4,250	$1.63	44d	1	0.54mi
422 Shady Ln Big Bear Lake, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,200	$2.00	44d	1	1.00mi
207 Pinecrest Dr Big Bear Lake, CA	4.0	3.0	2485	$3,400	$1.37	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $985 · $11,820/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,500 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,500 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,500 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,500 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,500 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,500 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,500 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,500 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,500 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,500 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $3,500 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Rare & unique vacation home opportunity. Own real estate, not points. Deeded, fractional ownership of a 3 bd/3 bath Villa at The Club in the Village of Big Bear Lake. This type of fractional ownership is no longer sold by the mgmt. It can only be purchased when an original owner sells their interest. You will have 28 nights a year of planned vacation time; 14 nights in summer & 14 in winter. More nights can be reserved based on availability whenever you like! Pay only for cleaning. Great for impromptu get-always free from usual home maintenance. If purchased, YOU will pay HOA fees of $2955.77 every 3 months and 1/10th of prop taxes for THIS Villa. Common ground taxes are included in the HOA. You can put up to 4 people on the deed. No pets unless service pet & no smoking. Cash only.

16. 2026-05-08
    price $3,500 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Rare & unique vacation home opportunity. Own real estate, not points. Deeded, fractional ownership of a 3 bd/3 bath Villa at The Club in the Village of Big Bear Lake. This type of fractional ownership is no longer sold by the mgmt. It can only be purchased when an original owner sells their interest. You will have 28 nights a year of planned vacation time; 14 nights in summer & 14 in winter. More nights can be reserved based on availability whenever you like! Pay only for cleaning. Great for impromptu get-always free from usual home maintenance. If purchased, YOU will pay HOA fees of $2955.77 every 3 months and 1/10th of prop taxes for THIS Villa. Common ground taxes are included in the HOA. You can put up to 4 people on the deed. No pets unless service pet & no smoking. Cash only.

17. 2026-03-31
    listed $5,000 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Rare & unique vacation home opportunity. Own real estate, not points. Deeded, fractional ownership of a 3 bd/3 bath Villa at The Club in the Village of Big Bear Lake. This type of fractional ownership is no longer sold by the mgmt. It can only be purchased when an original owner sells their interest. You will have 28 nights a year of planned vacation time; 14 nights in summer & 14 in winter. More nights can be reserved based on availability whenever you like! Pay only for cleaning. Great for impromptu get-always free from usual home maintenance. If purchased, YOU will pay HOA fees of $2955.77 every 3 months and 1/10th of prop taxes for THIS Villa. Common ground taxes are included in the HOA. You can put up to 4 people on the deed. No pets unless service pet & no smoking. Cash only.

18. 2026-03-31
    listed $5,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Rare & unique vacation home opportunity. Own real estate, not points. Deeded, fractional ownership of a 3 bd/3 bath Villa at The Club in the Village of Big Bear Lake. This type of fractional ownership is no longer sold by the mgmt. It can only be purchased when an original owner sells their interest. You will have 28 nights a year of planned vacation time; 14 nights in summer & 14 in winter. More nights can be reserved based on availability whenever you like! Pay only for cleaning. Great for impromptu get-always free from usual home maintenance. If purchased, YOU will pay HOA fees of $2955.77 every 3 months and 1/10th of prop taxes for THIS Villa. Common ground taxes are included in the HOA. You can put up to 4 people on the deed. No pets unless service pet & no smoking. Cash only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥83°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$196
• − Property taxes: −$52
• − Insurance: −$18
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,258
• − Management: −$3,258
• − HOA: −$11,820
• − Depreciation: −$102
• Taxable income: $22,016
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,284
• After-tax cash flow: $14,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Bear Lake, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 5,215
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,215
• Household income: $77,436
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -242.29%
• Current HPI: 310.1013
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $3,500 CRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $3,500 MRCAOR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $5,000 MRCAOR
• 2026-03-31 Listed $5,000 CRMLS