1615 Warren Rd · Rockford, IL 61108

$159,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1942 5,663 sqft lot Est $182k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-Bedroom Home, Move-In Ready! Welcome to this cozy 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring a 2-car garage. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living space, a practical layout, and plenty of room for family or guests. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Haskell Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,141 of 2,056 statewide, top 59%, 278 students, 0% FRL); Bernard W Flinn Middle School (math 5% / reading 9%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 830 students, 0% FRL); Rockford East High School (math 7% / reading 13%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 1,718 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.28%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,764
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4524 Newcastle Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (+6%)	3mo	$205,000	$105	64
3905 15th Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,812 (-1%)	8mo	$154,500	$85	63
2015 Leigh St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,846 (+0%)	10mo	$97,500	$53	63
4839 Alpine Park Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (-4%)	6mo	$240,000	$136	56
1721 Nixon Ct	0.50mi	4/1.5	1,628 (-11%)	5mo	$150,000	$92	53
1603 Homewood Dr Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-1%)	9mo	$277,000	$152	50
933 Lexington Way	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,961 (+7%)	9mo	$160,000	$82	44
2304 Holmes St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (-11%)	9mo	$168,000	$103	41
1120 Esmond Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	2,028 (+10%)	2mo	$190,000	$94	40
1002 Fieldcrest Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,626 (-11%)	3mo	$182,000	$112	40
1520 Log Cabin Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-15%)	9mo	$155,000	$99	37
4920 Fletcher Pl	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (-15%)	8mo	$155,000	$99	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $8,357
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $83,542
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61108

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,861 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,176/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,375

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $429	+0% $383	+5% $338	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $310	+0% $383	+5% $457	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $424	base $383	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2321 Welworth Ave Rockford, IL	5.0	2.0	1728	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.81mi
3516 Constance Dr Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	2400	$1,795	$0.75	22d	1	1.16mi
708 29th St Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,600	$0.89	22d	1	1.28mi
4300 Eastridge Dr Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-21
   soldstatus $170,000
2. 2026-04-17
   soldstatus $170,000 Closed 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Charming 4-Bedroom Home, Move-In Ready! Welcome to this cozy 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring a 2-car garage. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living space, a practical layout, and plenty of room for family or guests. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

3. 2026-03-16
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Charming 4-Bedroom Home, Move-In Ready! Welcome to this cozy 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring a 2-car garage. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living space, a practical layout, and plenty of room for family or guests. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

4. 2026-03-16
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Charming 4-Bedroom Home, Move-In Ready! Welcome to this cozy 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring a 2-car garage. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living space, a practical layout, and plenty of room for family or guests. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

5. 2026-03-13
   listed $159,900 Active
6. 2026-03-12
   listed $159,900 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   Charming 4-Bedroom Home, Move-In Ready! Welcome to this cozy 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home featuring a 2-car garage. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living space, a practical layout, and plenty of room for family or guests. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

7. 2025-06-09
   soldstatus $148,000
8. 2025-05-23
   soldstatus $148,000 Closed 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   A MUST SEE, READY TO MOVE IN COZY HOME! In a great location. New carpet. Wise utilized spaces and lots of storage. Dry, clean full basement. School bus stop in both corners. Sold AS IS

9. 2025-04-22
   status Pending 184-char remark

   Show marketing remark (184 chars)

   A MUST SEE, READY TO MOVE IN COZY HOME! In a great location. New carpet. Wise utilized spaces and lots of storage. Dry, clean full basement. School bus stop in both corners. Sold AS IS

10. 2025-04-17
    listed $140,000 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    A MUST SEE, READY TO MOVE IN COZY HOME! In a great location. New carpet. Wise utilized spaces and lots of storage. Dry, clean full basement. School bus stop in both corners. Sold AS IS

11. 2010-06-07
    soldstatus $75,000
12. 2009-10-06
    historical
13. 2009-06-26
    price
14. 2009-05-11
    price
15. 2009-04-16
    listed
16. 2009-01-21
    soldstatus $60,000
17. 1995-10-24
    soldstatus $70,500
18. 1995-10-24
    soldstatus $70,500
19. 1992-06-23
    soldstatus $58,500
20. 1992-06-23
    soldstatus $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,903 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$727/yr (+$61/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,176
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $2,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$521
• After-tax cash flow: $4,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,355
• Household income: $64,415
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1199.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 3% Arab 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.38%
• Current HPI: 218.6339
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+190.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-17 Sold (MLS) $170,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $159,900 NWIAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $159,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-23 Sold (MLS) $148,000 NWIAR
• 2025-04-22 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-04-17 Listed $140,000 NWIAR
• 2010-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-26 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-11 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-16 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 1995-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $70,500 Public Records
• 1992-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records
• 1992-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $58,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,176 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.