15350 NW 83rd Ter · Manatee Road, FL 32693

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Manufactured public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1977 4.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3bd/2 ba Screen Porch on 4.8 acres between Fanning and Chiefland off Old Fanning Road. Gated property, beautiful trees and established old azaleas everywhere. New pole barn with metal roof and newer shed with concrete floor an lean-to. Quiet County Living fixer upper older mobile with a NEW metal roof and new screen porch. Inside is partially remodeled, but just needs a few more touches. Definitely livable while you work on it. Great Short Term Rental Project, or starter, second, or retirement home. In Levy County, but has a Trenton address. Close to Cedar Key, Chiefland, Crystal River, Gainesville, Springs, Suwannee River, and Gulf of Mexico.

Key facts

• Gated property
• New metal roof
• Partially remodeled

Tags

• SCREEN PORCH
• GATED PROPERTY
• NEW POLE BARN
• NEW METAL ROOF
• ESTABLISHED OLD AZALEAS
• PARTIALLY REMODELED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Wooded lot; Workshop on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.8% in Manatee Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $180k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $115,945
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $327,207
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32693

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,157/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-03-28
    price $180,000
18. 2025-11-25
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2005-03-15
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$337/yr (+$28/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,157
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $454
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$109
• After-tax cash flow: $3,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Manatee Road

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #815
• US rank: #19826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manatee Road, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,692

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.81%
• Current HPI: 363.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+500.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $180,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $199,000 DGLMLS
• 2005-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,157 · -26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.