421 Raven Row · Cibolo, TX 78124

$304,270

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,284 sqft · SingleFamily · 216 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $309k · at est. $94/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $304k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Cibolo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#261 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,757 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,088
• List price: $304,270
• Delta: -1.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 White Heron Way	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-3%)	6mo	$320,030	$144	87
429 Raven Row	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,089 (-8%)	0mo	$299,330	$143	83
408 Raven Row	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-3%)	3mo	$309,130	$139	81
427 White Heron Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,079 (-9%)	2mo	$324,870	$156	79
410 White Heron Way	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,079 (-9%)	4mo	$296,430	$143	78
409 Raven Row	0.02mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,466 (+8%)	3mo	$344,230	$140	76
424 Raven Row	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+14%)	1mo	$339,151	$130	73
419 White Heron Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,034 (-11%)	6mo	$302,230	$149	72
123 Colette	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+5%)	1mo	$575,000	$239	72
1115 Crane Ct	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+14%)	2mo	$336,891	$130	70
1103 Crane Ct	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+14%)	0mo	$344,631	$132	70
423 White Heron Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,601 (+14%)	4mo	$334,771	$129	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,762
• Equity at exit: $45,368

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-60,699
• Equity at exit: $26,308

Cash invested: $85,196 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,564/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$94
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $284,654

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,068
• Closing costs: $9,128
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	44d	1	0.12mi
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	15d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $94 · $1,128/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $304,270 Pending 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $304,270 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $304,270 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-05-16
   price $304,270 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   *Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

5. 2026-04-12
   price $324,270 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

6. 2026-04-09
   price $324,270 359-char remark

   Show marketing remark (359 chars)

   *Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

7. 2026-04-01
   price $329,270 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

8. 2026-03-28
   price $334,270 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

9. 2026-03-07
   price $329,270 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

10. 2026-03-06
    price $329,270 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    *Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

11. 2026-02-22
    price $334,270 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

12. 2026-02-20
    price $334,270 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    *Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

13. 2026-01-16
    price $339,270 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

14. 2026-01-10
    price $341,270 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

15. 2026-01-09
    price $339,270 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    *Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

16. 2025-10-30
    price $344,270 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

17. 2025-10-30
    price $343,270 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

18. 2025-10-30
    price $344,270 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

19. 2025-10-28
    listed $343,270 New 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    *Available NOW!* The Dinero plan features plenty of space for everyday living and entertaining guests. The study with French doors flanks the front door foyer area, and an island kitchen opens to the cafe and gathering room. The private owner's suite has dual bathroom vanities and an oversized walk-in closet. The upstairs boasts 3 bedrooms and a loft space.

20. 2025-10-18
    listed $343,270 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Ready Now! The Dinero in Dove Song features a spacious two-story design with the primary suite and study downstairs, plus a loft and three bedrooms upstairs perfect for growing families seeking flexibility, space and comfort.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,044
• − Property taxes: −$4,564
• − Insurance: −$3,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − HOA: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$8,851
• Taxable loss: −$6,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,611
• After-tax cash flow: $-15/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious and well-maintained living environment with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cibolo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #6177

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $304,270 LERA
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $324,270 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $324,270 LERA
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $329,270 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $334,270 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $329,270 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $329,270 LERA
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $334,270 Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $334,270 LERA
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $339,270 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $341,270 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $339,270 LERA
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $344,270 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $343,270 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $344,270 Zillow
• 2025-10-28 Listed $343,270 LERA
• 2025-10-18 Listed $343,270 Zillow