8007 Arnold Rd Unit 5C · Denham Springs, LA 70726

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot $177/sqft · 14% below area Est $222k · 14% under $100/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this brand-new 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome offering great design and low-maintenance living. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan. The kitchen boasts beautiful quartz countertops, and brand new stainless steel appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a generous bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath. A second bedroom and full bathroom provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. HOA fees include: front yard maintenance (backyard complimentary), yearly termite, garbage, fence maintenance, common ground maintenance, road maintenance, management fees, and accounting services. *Structure square footage nor lot dimensions warranted by Realtor*

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bath

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATH
• FRONT YARD MAINTENANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 976 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11769% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,719 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,748
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8007 Arnold Rd Unit 3E	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,061 (-1%)	3mo	$195,500	$184	96
31855 La Hwy 16 #1501	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+0%)	5mo	$90,000	$84	75
7814 Amite Church Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+6%)	24mo	$435,000	$382	50
7544 Amite Church Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,206 (+12%)	6mo	$219,900	$182	42
7367 Fox Run Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (+14%)	2mo	$180,000	$147	39
7344 Robinson Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (+14%)	2mo	$140,000	$115	38
7334 Robinson Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (+13%)	20mo	$212,000	$174	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-45,584
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-54,970
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 976
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $153,251

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8073 Arnold Rd Denham Springs, LA	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,595	$1.45	23d	1	0.09mi
31855 Louisiana 16 #502 Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,200	$0.94	23d	1	0.42mi
31855 Louisiana 16 #404 Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,250	$0.98	43d	1	0.42mi
31855 Louisiana 16 #102 Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,150	$0.90	43d	1	0.42mi
7615 Magnolia Beach Rd Denham Springs, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,225	$1.26	14d	39	0.54mi
7332 Cherrydale Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,895	$1.35	14d	1	0.60mi
7344 Robinson Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,590	$1.30	14d	1	0.68mi
8065 Lockhart Rd Unit 5D Denham Springs, LA	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,750	$1.70	43d	1	0.71mi
33260 Louisiana 16 Unit 10 Denham Springs, LA	2.0	2.0	1045	$1,650	$1.58	43d	1	0.88mi
31050 Louisiana 16 Denham Springs, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	960	$1,226	$1.28	14d	21	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   price $189,900 741-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome offering great design and low-maintenance living. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan. The kitchen boasts beautiful quartz countertops, and brand new stainless steel appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a generous bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath. A second bedroom and full bathroom provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. HOA fees include: front yard maintenance (backyard complimentary), yearly termite, garbage, fence maintenance, common ground maintenance, road maintenance, management fees, and accounting services. * Structure square footage nor lot dimensions warranted by Realtor *

9. 2026-05-08
   price $189,900 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Welcome to this brand-new 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome offering great design and low-maintenance living. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan. The kitchen boasts beautiful quartz countertops, and brand new stainless steel appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a generous bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath. A second bedroom and full bathroom provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. HOA fees include: front yard maintenance (backyard complimentary), yearly termite, garbage, fence maintenance, common ground maintenance, road maintenance, management fees, and accounting services. * Structure square footage nor lot dimensions warranted by Realtor *

10. 2026-04-10
    listed $1,600
11. 2026-02-24
    listed $195,000 Active 741-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Welcome to this brand-new 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome offering great design and low-maintenance living. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan. The kitchen boasts beautiful quartz countertops, and brand new stainless steel appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a generous bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath. A second bedroom and full bathroom provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. HOA fees include: front yard maintenance (backyard complimentary), yearly termite, garbage, fence maintenance, common ground maintenance, road maintenance, management fees, and accounting services. * Structure square footage nor lot dimensions warranted by Realtor *

12. 2026-02-24
    listed $195,000 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Welcome to this brand-new 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom townhome offering great design and low-maintenance living. Step inside to an open-concept floor plan. The kitchen boasts beautiful quartz countertops, and brand new stainless steel appliances, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite offers a generous bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath. A second bedroom and full bathroom provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or additional living space. HOA fees include: front yard maintenance (backyard complimentary), yearly termite, garbage, fence maintenance, common ground maintenance, road maintenance, management fees, and accounting services. * Structure square footage nor lot dimensions warranted by Realtor *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$6,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,529
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Denham Springs

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 63,575
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $189,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $189,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,600 RAAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $195,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $195,000 AcadianaMLS