1 E Hemlock Dr Apt 160 · North Bay Shore, NY 11706

$205,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 24 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Big 1 Bedroom Apt, Liv/Dining Room, Kitchen, Bath, and Terrace. This Apartment has a lots of closet space. This property is near train and public transportation. Investor are Welcome!!

Key facts

• Near train
• Closet space
• Built 1967

Tags

• CLOSET SPACE
• NEAR TRAIN
• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Lexington Village Condo; Association-maintained

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Condominium; Two levels; Entry on level 2; 8 total stories
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront; Near public transit; Near shops; Additional parcels included

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Other interior features; Deck; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in North Bay Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#678 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brentwood Union Free School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #542 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hemlock Elementary School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 617 students, 82% FRL); West Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 848 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,925 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-35,279
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-36,630
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11706

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$535
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $202,999

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $57	+0% $-14	+5% $-85	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-111	+0% $-14	+5% $83	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $38	base $-14	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Hemlock Dr Unit C152 Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	707	$2,550	$3.61	25d	1	0.03mi
1158 Nugent Ave Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	25d	1	0.68mi
1731 N Gardiner Dr Unit 5A Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	44d	1	1.08mi
1737 N Gardiner Dr Unit DRIVE-22B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	44d	1	1.08mi
1737 N Gardiner Dr Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	448	$2,695	$6.02	8d	1	1.08mi
1739 N Gardiner Dr Unit 19B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,750	$4.40	44d	1	1.09mi
1741 N Gardiner Dr Unit 14B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	44d	1	1.09mi
1743 N Gardiner Dr Unit 12B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	44d	1	1.10mi
1077 Martinstein Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$2,500	$3.85	44d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   price $205,000
3. 2026-03-28
   listed $205 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − HOA: −$6,420
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,240
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$778
• After-tax cash flow: $612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, move-in-ready condo offers a good balance of updates and existing features, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and adds value.
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and adds value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3605280
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $71,840
• Composite: 32.44/100
• National rank: #5722
• State rank: #542 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bay Shore

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #678
• US rank: #12701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bay Shore, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,976
• Household income: $119,603
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 33% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.52%
• Current HPI: 311.4019
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $205,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $205 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid