4333 Pentz Rd #31 · Paradise, CA 95969

$143,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition 4,500 sqft lot $129/sqft · 49% below area Est $279k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.0

Listing remarks

Sales Tax Included. Take advantage of 2 months free rent, beautiful views of the valley, generous lot sizes, wide concrete driveways and comfortable porches to enjoy the early mornings and evening sun sets. The Lime Saddle Mobile Home Park is an all ages community located just South of Paradise adjacent to the Sierra Del Sol Gated Community. This brand new 2025 Champion home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms at 1,110 square feet and comes with a full kitchen appliance package, carpet and linoleum flooring, and washer/dryer hook-ups. We even welcome your four-legged family members. Pet restrictions apply.

Key facts

• Generous lot sizes
• 4,500 sq ft lot
• Built 2025

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT SIZES
• WIDE CONCRETE DRIVEWAYS
• FULL KITCHEN APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• WASHER DRYER HOOK UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.3% in Paradise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#541 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Golden Feather Union Elementary (rural): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #1,295 of 1,400 in CA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Concow Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,256 of 1,571 statewide, top 81%, 69 students, 96% FRL); Oroville High (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 936 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Golden Feather Union Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 560 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,420 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,000
• List price: $143,000
• Delta: -48.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5369 Pentz Rd	1.86mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (+2%)	7mo	$325,000	$286	50
1575 La Grande Vue	2.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (+9%)	6mo	$270,000	$222	39
2235 Stearns Rd	2.24mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+29%)	2mo	$445,000	$311	39
5200 Trafalgar Sq	1.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+8%)	15mo	$399,000	$333	39
11228 Nelson Bar	2.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+30%)	6mo	$160,000	$111	35
2250 Demille Rd	1.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+8%)	16mo	$395,000	$329	33
5190 Edgewood Ln	1.94mi	2/2.0 (-1)	947 (-15%)	3mo	$279,000	$295	33
1936 Hillpark Ln	1.77mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+21%)	9mo	$379,000	$281	33
1883 Marywood Dr	2.15mi	3/2.0	1,283 (+16%)	10mo	$340,000	$265	31
2189 De Mille Rd	1.94mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+17%)	34mo	$335,000	$258	20
5255 Xeno Pl	2.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	915 (-18%)	38mo	$325,000	$355	11
1983 Hillpark Ln	1.90mi	2/1.0 (-1)	915 (-18%)	40mo	$310,000	$339	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,279
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $30,155
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $149,000 ($134/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +87.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95969

• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 560
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $218	+0% $169	+5% $119	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $53	-5% $111	+0% $169	+5% $226	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $205	base $169	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: reported by landlord/ownerLiving area source: seller reportedYear built source: seller reported
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $600 (park-managed land lease)
• HOA & community: Part of an associationCommunity in the foothillsPark name: Lime Saddle MHPManager approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parkingProperty has parkingLocated in Lime Saddle Mobile Home Park
• Utilities: Propane availableElectricity connectedPrivate sewerPublic/district water
• Home design: Single-story (one level)Model: Elmore BayMobile home remains on siteMobile dimensions approximately 23' x 44'Entry facing Pentz Road
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: PorchHas patioLandscaped lotCement board skirtingPrivate road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown moldingsHigh (9-foot+) ceilingsCeiling fanPantryTwo staircasesOpen floor planQuartz counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupHas laundry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $143,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $143,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $143,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $143,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $143,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $143,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $143,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $143,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $143,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $143,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $143,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $143,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $143,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $143,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $143,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $143,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $143,000 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $143,000 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $143,000 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $143,000 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $143,000 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $143,000 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $143,000 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $143,000 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $143,000 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $143,000 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $143,000 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $143,000 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $143,000 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $143,000 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $143,000 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $143,000 Active 34 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $143,000 Active 33 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $143,000 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $143,000 Active 31 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $143,000 Active 30 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $143,000 Active 29 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $143,000 Active 27 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $143,000 Active 25 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $143,000 Active 24 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $143,000 Active 22 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $143,000 Active 21 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $143,000 Active 20 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $143,000 Active 19 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $143,000 Active 18 DOM
46. 2026-06-14
    days on market $143,000 Active 16 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $143,000 Active 15 DOM
48. 2026-06-10
    days on market $143,000 Active 13 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $143,000 Active 12 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $143,000 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable loss: −$269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new 2025 Champion home is in excellent condition with a spacious layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and maintain its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring to a more durable material — This can increase the home's resale value and make it more appealing to renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small garden or landscaping feature — This can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to more energy-efficient models — This can increase the home's resale value and make it more appealing to renters. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — This can increase the home's resale value and make it more appealing to renters by adding modern conveniences. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Concow Elementary F CA #1,256/1,571 Nat'l #33,508/41,679 High Oroville High F CA #578/1,170 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Golden Feather Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0615480
• Math proficiency: 11% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,377
• Composite: 16.29/100
• National rank: #14273
• State rank: #1295 of 1400 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Paradise

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #18039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butte County · 237,527 people
• City population: 8,339
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,339
• Household income: $69,067
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -410.40%
• Current HPI: 102.8367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: reported by landlord/ownerLiving area source: seller reportedYear built source: seller reported
• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $600 (park-managed land lease)
• HOA & community: Part of an associationCommunity in the foothillsPark name: Lime Saddle MHPManager approval requiredPets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parkingProperty has parkingLocated in Lime Saddle Mobile Home Park
• Utilities: Propane availableElectricity connectedPrivate sewerPublic/district water
• Home design: Single-story (one level)Model: Elmore BayMobile home remains on siteMobile dimensions approximately 23' x 44'Entry facing Pentz Road
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: PorchHas patioLandscaped lotCement board skirtingPrivate road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Flooring: CarpetLaminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Crown moldingsHigh (9-foot+) ceilingsCeiling fanPantryTwo staircasesOpen floor planQuartz counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupHas laundry

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $143,000 CRMLS