2621 Welch Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$130,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1945 Good condition 3,720 sqft lot $94/sqft · 23% below area Est $169k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this well maintained, fully updated 2/1 multi unit located in Niagara Falls. Perfect for an investor or owner occupant to live in one unit and generate income from the other. Currently this house is generating $1,650 a month in rents which can be increased. The lower unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom and the upper unit features 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom. Updates include: Hot water tank (2021), updated copper plumbing, updated electric (2 separate meters). Full walk up attic. Full dry basement. 2 car garage offering ample parking.

Key facts

• Updated electric
• Full walk up attic
• Ample parking

Tags

• UPDATED COPPER PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• FULL WALK UP ATTIC
• FULL DRY BASEMENT
• AMPLE PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $837 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bloneva Bond Primary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,075 of 2,108 statewide, top 99%, 403 students, 82% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,279/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 19% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.61%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,525
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -22.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2771 Livingston Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,408 (+2%)	8mo	$88,000	$63	78
443 21st St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (+3%)	12mo	$65,000	$46	62
548 19th St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,265 (-9%)	2mo	$62,500	$49	55
445 18th St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-5%)	17mo	$55,000	$42	53
614 20th St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,570 (+13%)	3mo	$100,000	$64	47
547 21st St	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (+11%)	13mo	$129,900	$85	43
2719 Pine Ave	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,280 (-8%)	18mo	$79,000	$62	39
514 18th St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-9%)	15mo	$88,740	$70	38
2405 Independence Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,524 (+10%)	20mo	$127,000	$83	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $32,349
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $97,154
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.2 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $99,900 ($67/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 73% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +81.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,724/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $837

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,155
1× unit	1	1	$1,124
Total (2 units)			$2,279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $911	-5% $874	+0% $837	+5% $801	+10% $764
Rent	-10% $657	-5% $747	+0% $837	+5% $928	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $903	-0.5pp $871	base $837	+0.5pp $804	+1.0pp $770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2725 Niagara St Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	—	$1,000	—	66d	1	0.13mi
2743 Niagara St Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$1,050	—	93d	1	0.16mi
455 24th St Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	35d	1	0.24mi
487 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$975	—	19d	1	0.28mi
434 23rd St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,100	$1.35	63d	1	0.30mi
2509 Ferry Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	—	$750	—	52d	1	0.30mi
1780 Falls St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	93d	1	0.47mi
1793 Welch Ave Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	802	$1,000	$1.25	47d	1	0.48mi
512 20th St Unit 5 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$850	—	93d	1	0.53mi
420 18th St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$1,150	$1.41	93d	1	0.55mi
1761 Welch Ave Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	988	$1,000	$1.01	19d	1	0.55mi
547 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	4783	$900	$0.19	51d	1	0.60mi
2902 Pine Ave Unit 1B Niagara Falls, NY	—	1.0	650	$1,400	$2.15	28d	1	0.60mi
3626 Dudley Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	93d	1	0.61mi
2405 Grand Ave Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$800	$1.04	32d	1	0.64mi
769 19th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.5	960	$1,400	$1.46	70d	1	0.82mi
2498 Woodlawn Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	11d	1	0.84mi
456 12th St Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	—	$800	—	72d	1	0.94mi
613 13th St Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	35d	1	0.95mi
2473 Pierce Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	52d	1	1.00mi
1192 Haeberle Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	920	$1,300	$1.41	35d	1	1.01mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	93d	1	1.07mi
1533 La Salle Ave Unit Lower Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	748	$1,100	$1.47	32d	1	1.09mi
1361 Ashland Ave Unit 1F Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	3168	$950	$0.30	72d	1	1.10mi
714 Buffalo Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	93d	1	1.21mi
714 Buffalo Ave Unit 4 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	93d	1	1.21mi
714 Buffalo Ave Apt 5 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	528	$850	$1.61	52d	1	1.21mi
616 Niagara St Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,288	$1.72	11d	1	1.24mi
2463 South Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	66d	1	1.30mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	17d	1	1.32mi
616 7th St Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	770	$1,150	$1.49	72d	1	1.32mi
510 6th St Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	950	$900	$0.95	93d	1	1.33mi
700 Pine Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	1075	$1,075	$1.00	61d	1	1.34mi
463 3rd St Unit 6 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,250	$2.08	93d	1	1.48mi
463 3rd St Unit 5 Niagara Falls, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,000	$3.33	72d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $130,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $130,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $135,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $135,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $135,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $135,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $135,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 121 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $135,000 Active 120 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $135,000 Active 119 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $135,000 Active 118 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 117 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 116 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $135,000 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 107 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 105 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 104 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $135,000 Active 103 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $135,000 Active 102 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $135,000 Active 101 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $135,000 Active 100 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $135,000 Active 98 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $135,000 Active 96 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $135,000 Active 95 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $135,000 Active 86 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,724
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $8,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,048
• After-tax cash flow: $8,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,930–$20,790 screening

This multi-family home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed. Fresh paint and trimming the bushes can significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Trim the bushes — Well-maintained landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bloneva Bond Primary School F NY #2,075/2,108 Nat'l #39,071/41,679 Middle Gaskill Preparatory School F NY #702/729 Nat'l #12,486/14,009 High Niagara Falls High School A NY #409/1,100 Nat'l #817/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 204,149 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $135,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,724 · +28.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.