2621 Welch Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$135,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1945 3,720 sqft lot $97/sqft · 35% below area Est $206k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this well maintained, fully updated 2/1 multi unit located in Niagara Falls. Perfect for an investor or owner occupant to live in one unit and generate income from the other. Currently this house is generating $1,650 a month in rents which can be increased. The lower unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom and the upper unit features 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom. Updates include: Hot water tank (2021), updated copper plumbing, updated electric (2 separate meters). Full walk up attic. Full dry basement. 2 car garage offering ample parking.

Key facts

• Updated electric
• Full walk up attic
• Ample parking

Tags

• UPDATED COPPER PLUMBING
• UPDATED ELECTRIC
• FULL WALK UP ATTIC
• FULL DRY BASEMENT
• AMPLE PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $861 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,345/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.34%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,203
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -34.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2771 Livingston Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,408 (+2%)	7mo	$88,000	$63	79
443 21st St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (+3%)	10mo	$65,000	$46	64
548 19th St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,265 (-9%)	1mo	$62,500	$49	56
445 18th St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-5%)	15mo	$55,000	$42	54
614 20th St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,570 (+13%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	48
547 21st St	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (+11%)	12mo	$129,900	$85	44
2719 Pine Ave	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,280 (-8%)	16mo	$79,000	$62	40
514 18th St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-9%)	14mo	$88,740	$70	40
2405 Independence Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,524 (+10%)	18mo	$127,000	$83	37
3339 Church Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,184 (-15%)	23mo	$90,000	$76	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $33,054
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $99,711
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,724/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,255

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 58%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,201
1× unit	1	1	$1,144
Total (2 units)			$2,345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2727 Monroe Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	10d	1	0.16mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.17mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.18mi
3036 Welch Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	1d	1	0.30mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	0.50mi
3340 Simmons Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	14d	1	0.60mi
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.71mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.85mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.97mi
754 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	23d	1	0.98mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	1.03mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $135,000 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Check out this well maintained, fully updated 2/1 multi unit located in Niagara Falls. Perfect for an investor or owner occupant to live in one unit and generate income from the other. Currently this house is generating $1,650 a month in rents which can be increased. The lower unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom and the upper unit features 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom. Updates include: Hot water tank (2021), updated copper plumbing, updated electric (2 separate meters). Full walk up attic. Full dry basement. 2 car garage offering ample parking.

16. 2026-03-18
    listed $140,000 Active 550-char remark

    Show marketing remark (550 chars)

    Check out this well maintained, fully updated 2/1 multi unit located in Niagara Falls. Perfect for an investor or owner occupant to live in one unit and generate income from the other. Currently this house is generating $1,650 a month in rents which can be increased. The lower unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom and the upper unit features 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom. Updates include: Hot water tank (2021), updated copper plumbing, updated electric (2 separate meters). Full walk up attic. Full dry basement. 2 car garage offering ample parking.

17. 2023-07-17
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,724 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,724
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $8,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,100
• After-tax cash flow: $8,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $135,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,724 · +28.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.