3506 Homestead Way · Ceres, CA 95307

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $102k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home located in a quiet and desirable senior community. Built in 2005, this home offers a comfortable and inviting layout. The kitchen features a newer gas range and ample cabinet space, while the included washer and dryer add extra convenience. Enjoy year-round comfort with the updated HVAC system. This home has been lovingly cared for and is move-in ready, making it a fantastic opportunity for anyone seeking peaceful living in a well-kept community. Come take a look!

Key facts

• Updated hvac system
• Newer gas range
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• NEWER GAS RANGE
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• UPDATED HVAC SYSTEM
• INCLUDED WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but property indicates no land lease)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Parking information not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: other; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Single-wide floorplan; Built in 2005
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Fleetwood Homes of CA manufacturer; Model/Make: EXPRESSONS
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Located on a court

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Breakfast room
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s) and central air for cooling; Central heating; Breakfast room off the kitchen; Dining space in the kitchen; Living room with additional features; Low-flow toilet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; 220-volt outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $774 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.28%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3118 Donner Dr #23	0.08mi	2/2.0	780 (-0%)	12mo	$50,000	$64	82
3106 Donner Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	800 (+2%)	16mo	$104,000	$130	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $34,910
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $93,994
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Don Pedro Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,695	$2.08	3d	1	0.36mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 18 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	13d	1	0.46mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 96 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	43d	1	0.46mi
2717 Roeding Rd Unit 34 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	13d	1	0.46mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 13 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	21d	1	0.46mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 103 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	21d	1	0.46mi
2717 Roeding Rd Apt 92 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	43d	1	0.46mi
2714 Pyramid Ave Unit 2714 Ceres, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,895	$1.88	23d	1	0.46mi
2121 Moffett Rd Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	1.05mi
2250 5th St Unit 11 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	23d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,009
• After-tax cash flow: $7,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B