29 Kents Hill Rd · Winthrop, ME 04284

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1800 1.16 ac lot $178/sqft · 20% below area Est $335k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming three bedroom, two bathroom home sits on a beautiful 1.16 acre lot. The home boasts hardwood floors and lovely woodwork along with many recent upgrades and renovations!. The galley style kitchen has lots of natural light and the formal dining room with fireplace and hardwood floors is a must see! Imagine relaxing in the cozy den, comfortable living room or family room on the main level and in the evening retreating to the second level which has all three bedrooms and two full bathrooms! Mostly renovated in summer of 2022, it is just waiting for your finishing touches!

Key facts

• Recent upgrades
• Formal dining room
• Beautiful lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COMFORTABLE LIVING ROOM
• RECENT UPGRADES
• BEAUTIFUL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.1% in Winthrop — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 38 (rural): math 89% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #27 of 112 in ME (top 24%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $111k; list at $199k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,694 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,180
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -40.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Walton Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,073 (-4%)	14mo	$304,000	$283	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,396
• Equity at exit: $34,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-51,973
• Equity at exit: $26,115

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04284

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,638/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,704

Max offer price $157,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-179	+0% $-235	+5% $-291	+10% $-347
Rent	-10% $-346	-5% $-290	+0% $-235	+5% $-179	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-184	base $-235	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    price $199,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $210,000 Active 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    This charming three bedroom, two bathroom home sits on a beautiful 1.16 acre lot. The home boasts hardwood floors and lovely woodwork along with many recent upgrades and renovations!. The galley style kitchen has lots of natural light and the formal dining room with fireplace and hardwood floors is a must see! Imagine relaxing in the cozy den, comfortable living room or family room on the main level and in the evening retreating to the second level which has all three bedrooms and two full bathrooms! Mostly renovated in summer of 2022, it is just waiting for your finishing touches!

17. 2026-01-02
    price $199,000
18. 2025-08-28
    price $229,000
19. 2023-07-10
    price $199,500
20. 2022-03-11
    soldstatus $111,000 Closed
21. 2022-02-18
    status Pending - Continue to Show
22. 2022-01-11
    status Active
23. 2021-11-22
    status Pending - Continue to Show
24. 2021-11-04
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,638 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,672 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$34/yr (+$3/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,638
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,351
• − Management: −$1,351
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,387
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 38
• NCES district ID: 2314788
• Math proficiency: 89% ▲ 54.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 29.00%
• Median HH income: $63,163
• Composite: 76.39/100
• National rank: #107
• State rank: #27 of 112 in ME

Livability — Winthrop

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,153
• Population (ZIP): 1,096

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.43%
• Current HPI: 169.4604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+76.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $210,000 MREIS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $199,000 MREIS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $229,000 MREIS
• 2023-07-10 Price Changed $199,500 MREIS
• 2022-03-11 Sold (MLS) $111,000 MREIS
• 2022-02-18 Pending — MREIS
• 2022-01-11 Relisted — MREIS
• 2021-11-22 Pending — MREIS
• 2021-11-04 Listed $119,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,638 · +35.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.