15427 N Factory St · Surprise, AZ 85378

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1935 10,050 sqft lot $171/sqft · 46% below area Est $345k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Bank Owned REO. Send Highest and Best Offer

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1935

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax year 2025 (tax amount listed separately)
• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: Association fees include: Other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Construction materials: Other; Roof: Other; Building area source: Assessor
• Exterior features: None listed for lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other); Has cooling (type: Other)
• Interior features: Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (6.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $327 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,589 (6.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.15%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,096
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -46.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15633 N Greasewood St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+8%)	2mo	$305,000	$261	77
16008 N Hollyhock St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	15mo	$350,000	$324	65
14505 N 3rd Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,066 (-1%)	2mo	$287,000	$269	64
12132 W Caribbean Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+5%)	11mo	$360,000	$318	63
12927 W Desert Ln	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,122 (+4%)	8mo	$287,000	$256	57
14309 N 4th Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-4%)	22mo	$315,000	$303	42
16532 N Wusich St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-7%)	18mo	$275,000	$273	41
14812 N EL Frio St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+2%)	23mo	$341,000	$309	39
14309 N 3rd Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	0mo	$260,000	$211	39
16032 N Sunny Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	19mo	$305,000	$254	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,015
• Equity at exit: $55,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,463
• Equity at exit: $67,871

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,736 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $157	+0% $93	+5% $29	+10% $-35
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $24	+0% $93	+5% $161	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $140	base $93	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	6d	1	0.08mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	25d	2	0.18mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	25d	1	0.40mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	0.58mi
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	25d	4	0.62mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	25d	1	0.64mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	3d	17	0.65mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	6d	1	0.73mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	3d	3	0.76mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	44d	1	0.76mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	23d	1	0.76mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	44d	1	0.91mi
14005 N Palm St Unit 4 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	44d	1	0.96mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 14 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	44d	1	0.98mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 12 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	3d	1	0.98mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	6d	1	1.05mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	5d	1	1.11mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	2d	1	1.11mi
12731 W Sharon Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	17d	1	1.16mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	44d	1	1.19mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.20mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,970	$1.44	4d	1	1.24mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	25d	1	1.32mi
13517 N Luna St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,530	$1.21	25d	1	1.33mi
13939 N 132nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1297	$3,500	$2.70	44d	1	1.38mi
12521 W Myer Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,700	$1.21	44d	1	1.39mi
12814 W Pershing St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	1495	$1,945	$1.30	13d	1	1.42mi
13338 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,096	$1.48	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $185,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $185,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $185,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $185,000 Active 43-char remark
17. 2024-08-14
    soldstatus $240,000
18. 2024-06-03
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $1,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+12.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $245 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.