533 Old Western Pass · Sonterra, TX 76537

$242,580

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $301k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story plan is ideal for a family looking for lots of space and a place to create new memories. Wake up to brand new stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and open living spaces that look out onto your own private patio.

Key facts

• Private patio
• Granite countertops
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,260; Address: 533 Old Western Pass, Jarrell TX 76537
• Financial info: Listing status: Active; List price: $275,190

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec new construction, Plan: Magellan; Single-family property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric and heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $243k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($787/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Sonterra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $220,510 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 Blue Steel Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,334 (+3%)	3mo	$339,865	$146	82
732 Barbary Coast Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,198 (-3%)	3mo	$318,000	$145	75
345 Brannigan Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-12%)	3mo	$249,990	$126	72
208 Night Riders Way	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	2mo	$270,000	$127	72
133 Starpacker Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,925 (-15%)	2mo	$255,990	$133	67
108 Old Stagecoach Rd	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,468 (+9%)	2mo	$247,900	$100	65
509 Yellow Ribbon	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,534 (+12%)	1mo	$364,900	$144	65
401 The Duke Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-2%)	2mo	$317,680	$143	61
116 Hatari Trl	0.63mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,466 (+9%)	2mo	$321,751	$130	48
145 Hatari Trl	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,945 (-14%)	1mo	$307,990	$158	43
122 Lucky Texan Cv	0.66mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,509 (+11%)	2mo	$305,463	$122	42
108 Green Berets Bnd	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,536 (+12%)	2mo	$319,990	$126	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,558
• Equity at exit: $36,169

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-55,646
• Equity at exit: $20,974

Cash invested: $67,922 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,205 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,272
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$303 /mo · $3,639/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $242,580

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $149	+0% $66	+5% $-18	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-21	+0% $66	+5% $153	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $127	base $66	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,645
• Closing costs: $7,277
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.31mi
316 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2560	$2,095	$0.82	45d	1	0.33mi
224 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,200	$0.84	0d	1	0.34mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.35mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.36mi
229 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1935	$1,800	$0.93	0d	1	0.37mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,528	$1.43	0d	1	0.41mi
524 Barbary Coast Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	3.0	2552	$2,295	$0.90	0d	1	0.47mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2399	$2,095	$0.87	5d	1	0.93mi
131 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	3.0	2468	$2,095	$0.85	0d	1	0.93mi
504 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$1,870	$0.98	0d	1	1.15mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.23mi
201 Katie Elder Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	2418	$1,795	$0.74	0d	1	1.27mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.28mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,580 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $242,580 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,190 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,190 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 238-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $275,190 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,588
• − Property taxes: −$3,639
• − Insurance: −$1,213
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,117
• − Management: −$2,117
• − Depreciation: −$7,057
• Taxable loss: −$3,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $1,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B