9017 Cranston Ct · Providence Village, TX 76227

$329,850

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2014 7,405 sqft lot $101/sqft · 14% below area Est $381k · 14% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

Key facts

• Covered patios
• Open design
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• COVERED PATIOS
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• OPEN DESIGN
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACES
• OVERSIZED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Providence Village — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1885 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,886 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,364
• List price: $329,850
• Delta: -13.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8978 Stallings Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,210 (-2%)	16mo	$410,000	$128	74
9104 Cape Cod Blvd	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,023 (-8%)	10mo	$349,900	$116	62
6028 Bowie Ct	0.35mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,120 (-5%)	11mo	$413,000	$132	58
9124 Benevolent Ct	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,452 (+6%)	21mo	$380,000	$110	58
9144 Benevolent Ct	0.20mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,417 (+4%)	23mo	$399,999	$117	56
5932 Hopkins Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,902 (-11%)	2mo	$389,900	$134	54
10048 Travis Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,114 (-5%)	24mo	$423,000	$136	51
1924 Stephanie Ct	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,954 (-10%)	13mo	$399,000	$135	44
8998 Delway Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,928 (-10%)	6mo	$389,900	$133	35
1213 Angel Ln	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,980 (-9%)	10mo	$539,990	$181	35
9524 Cape Cod Blvd	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,783 (-15%)	14mo	$385,000	$138	33
3105 Bald Eagle Blvd	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,966 (-9%)	22mo	$430,990	$145	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-90,578
• Equity at exit: $49,182

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-146,163
• Equity at exit: $28,519

Cash invested: $92,358 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1885
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,659 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$622 /mo · $7,466/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $-464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,246

Max offer price $247,886

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-371	+0% $-464	+5% $-557	+10% $-651
Rent	-10% $-674	-5% $-569	+0% $-464	+5% $-359	+10% $-254
Rate	-1.0pp $-298	-0.5pp $-380	base $-464	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,462
• Closing costs: $9,896
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8982 Stallings Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.5	2534	$2,611	$1.03	15d	1	0.13mi
6009 Myers Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2538	$3,400	$1.34	44d	1	0.23mi
10013 Adams Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2543	$2,600	$1.02	44d	1	0.30mi
10032 Adams Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.5	3010	$2,900	$0.96	5d	1	0.34mi
5925 Hopkins Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.5	2983	$3,000	$1.01	44d	1	0.35mi
5913 Hopkins Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	4.0	3058	$3,199	$1.05	44d	1	0.35mi
9728 Gooseneck Trl Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2349	$2,900	$1.23	44d	1	0.50mi
9308 Masse Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2635	$2,200	$0.83	44d	1	0.52mi
9712 Quail Pointe Rd Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2349	$2,800	$1.19	44d	1	0.57mi
9113 Hope Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2805	$2,450	$0.87	25d	1	0.57mi
9113 Hope Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2805	$2,495	$0.89	7d	1	0.57mi
2901 Bald Eagle Blvd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2622	$2,599	$0.99	13d	1	0.60mi
8982 Delway Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.5	2551	$2,800	$1.10	44d	1	0.68mi
9820 Elk Falls Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2966	$2,700	$0.91	44d	1	0.70mi
9916 Boston Harbor Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.5	2678	$2,575	$0.96	44d	1	0.75mi
7380 FM 424 Cross Roads, TX	4.0	3.0	2650	$3,500	$1.32	44d	1	0.77mi
9817 Cherrywood Way Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2965	$3,000	$1.01	19d	1	0.79mi
10517 Breezeway Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2433	$2,490	$1.02	25d	1	0.96mi
10101 Sunnyview Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$2,500	$0.98	44d	1	1.04mi
10201 Sunnyview Ln Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2520	$2,500	$0.99	25d	1	1.07mi
2440 Opaline Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.5	2410	$2,400	$1.00	44d	1	1.08mi
10917 Blaze St Aubrey, TX	4.0	3.0	2509	$2,900	$1.16	7d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,850 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,850 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,850 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,850 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,850 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $329,850 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $329,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

16. 2026-05-06
    price $349,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

17. 2026-05-04
    price $358,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

18. 2026-04-27
    price $359,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

19. 2026-04-06
    price $344,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

20. 2026-03-31
    price $349,900 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

21. 2026-03-23
    listed $359,900 Active 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    Best Value in Providence Village! Lowest Sqft Price for a Home this size! All new Paint, Carpet, Updated! Come check out all the value in this desired property in Seaside Village in Providence! Home features cute, covered patios in from and rear. Interior offers spacious living in each and every room! 2 PRIMARY BEDROOMS, 1 UPSTAIRS AND 1 DOWNSTAIRS. The kitchen features granite counter tops, open design with plenty of table space. The living area are truly impressive, large enough for any activity! Secondary bedrooms upstairs are grand too! Plenty of cabinet spaces and storage. The backyard is very impressive for this neighborhood, oversized and well-appointed with nice grasses.

22. 2021-05-03
    soldstatus
23. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus Sold 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Welcome home to Providence Village! Great four bedroom home, with two oversized master bedrooms, Two living areas & a giant backyard. This is the one you've been waiting for.

24. 2021-04-07
    status Pending 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Welcome home to Providence Village! Great four bedroom home, with two oversized master bedrooms, Two living areas & a giant backyard. This is the one you've been waiting for.

25. 2021-03-16
    historical Active Option Contract 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Welcome home to Providence Village! Great four bedroom home, with two oversized master bedrooms, Two living areas & a giant backyard. This is the one you've been waiting for.

26. 2021-03-09
    listed $335,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    Welcome home to Providence Village! Great four bedroom home, with two oversized master bedrooms, Two living areas & a giant backyard. This is the one you've been waiting for.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,466 · $622/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,466 · $622/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,477
• − Property taxes: −$7,466
• − Insurance: −$1,649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,552
• − Management: −$2,552
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,596
• Taxable loss: −$11,288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,709
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $329,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $349,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $358,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $359,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $344,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $349,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $359,900 NTREIS
• 2021-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-04-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-03-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-03-09 Listed $335,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,466 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.