435 21st St #316 · Miami Beach, FL 33139

$279,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 556 sqft · Condo public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1936 $944/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Residence 316 at The Governor epitomizes refined Miami Beach living, blending elegance with modern sophistication. This meticulously upgraded one-bedroom sanctuary boasts custom-built closets, enhanced storage, and an open-concept design with tranquil courtyard views. Venetian blue accents elevate the ambiance, while state-of-the-art track lighting, new window screens, and a brand-new in-unit water heater ensure effortless luxury. With just 61 residences, The Governor offers private beach access, a fitness center, lap and plunge pools, 24-hour security, and concierge service. Flexible rental options make it ideal as a home or investment. The seller has covered $20,000 in assessments, enhanc

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Enhanced storage
• Courtyard views

Tags

• CUSTOM-BUILT CLOSETS
• ENHANCED STORAGE
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COURTYARD VIEWS
• IN-UNIT WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with possible restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association covers amenities, common areas, HVAC, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, parking, pest control, sewer, and security; Community amenities include bike storage, clubhouse, fitness center, hobby room, pool, and elevators

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 1 space; Guest parking; Valet
• Security: Doorman; Key card entry; Secured lobby; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Attached property; 3-story building; Entry located on third floor
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Exterior lighting; Heated pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Icemaker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Unfurnished; Living/dining room; Third-floor entry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (23.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,688/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 4052% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 26% of rent; built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,611 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.19% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,468
• Equity at exit: $51,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-120,983
• Equity at exit: $42,025

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33139

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,074/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$944
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $-376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,164

Max offer price $212,611

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-218	-5% $-297	+0% $-376	+5% $-455	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-667	-5% $-521	+0% $-376	+5% $-230	+10% $-84
Rate	-1.0pp $-235	-0.5pp $-305	base $-376	+0.5pp $-448	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Collins Ave Miami Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$22,000	$19.62	25d	2	0.21mi
1602 Meridian Ave Miami Beach, FL	4.0	1.0–3.0	917	$6,932	$7.56	15d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $944 · $11,328/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymdoormansecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-03-05
   price $279,000
4. 2026-02-02
   price $289,000
5. 2025-12-02
   listed $299,000 Active
6. 2025-10-20
   historical
7. 2025-10-13
   price $310,000
8. 2025-07-28
   price $320,000
9. 2025-06-09
   price $340,000
10. 2025-05-05
    price $349,000
11. 2025-03-31
    price $359,000
12. 2025-02-20
    listed $369,000 Active
13. 2025-02-19
    historical
14. 2024-12-30
    price $369,000
15. 2024-08-20
    listed $380,000 Active
16. 2023-04-26
    soldstatus $330,000
17. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed
18. 2023-01-25
    status Pending
19. 2023-01-09
    status Pending
20. 2023-01-02
    soldstatus $330,000 Closed
21. 2022-12-16
    price $330,000
22. 2022-10-24
    price $319,000
23. 2022-09-23
    price $320,000
24. 2022-06-30
    price $340,000
25. 2022-04-20
    price $360,000
26. 2022-03-02
    price $375,000
27. 2021-12-23
    listed $385,000 Active
28. 2020-09-17
    historical
29. 2019-08-14
    price $340,000
30. 2019-03-29
    listed $350,000 Active
31. 2013-05-20
    soldstatus $247,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,074 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,074 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,074
• − Insurance: −$6,514
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,541
• − Management: −$3,541
• − HOA: −$11,328
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$8,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,753
• Household income: $69,793
• Rent vs Own: 62.8% rent · 37.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4052.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 15% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.19%
• Current HPI: 277.9321
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+13.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $279,000 MARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $289,000 MARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $299,000 MARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $310,000 MARMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $320,000 MARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $340,000 MARMLS
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $349,000 MARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $359,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $369,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $369,000 MARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Listed $380,000 MARMLS
• 2023-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-13 Sold (MLS) $330,000 MARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Pending — MARMLS
• 2023-01-09 Pending — MARMLS
• 2023-01-02 Sold (MLS) $330,000 MARMLS
• 2022-12-16 Price Changed $330,000 MARMLS
• 2022-10-24 Price Changed $319,000 MARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Price Changed $320,000 MARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $340,000 MARMLS
• 2022-04-20 Price Changed $360,000 MARMLS
• 2022-03-02 Price Changed $375,000 MARMLS
• 2021-12-23 Listed $385,000 MARMLS
• 2020-09-17 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2019-08-14 Price Changed $340,000 MARMLS
• 2019-03-29 Listed $350,000 MARMLS
• 2013-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $247,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,074 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.