13066 E Concord Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,109 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2005 7,230 sqft lot $109/sqft · 25% below area Est $306k · 25% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this opportunity-filled home in Lillian, Alabama, priced at $241,000! This property offers solid bones and great potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. With a functional layout and established setting, it’s the perfect canvas for someone looking to add their own personal style and updates. The home does require repairs and cosmetic improvements, making it ideal for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project. The interior is ready for a refresh, and the exterior—including the backyard—offers space to redesign and create your own outdoor retreat. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood with convenient access to Perdido Bay, nearby Florida amenities, and the growing Foley area, this property combines location, potential, and value. If you’re looking for a home you can truly make your own, this is it! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Growing foley area
• 7,230 sq ft lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEARBY FLORIDA AMENITIES
• GROWING FOLEY AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($629/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,233 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,292
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -25.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12935 Westfield Loop	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-5%)	6mo	$292,000	$146	59
12741 S Santa Piedro	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,843 (-13%)	4mo	$390,000	$212	55
34171 White Osprey Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,300 (+9%)	3mo	$315,000	$137	51
12656 White Osprey Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,892 (-10%)	2mo	$330,000	$174	48
33895 Rosalia Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-10%)	13mo	$372,500	$196	47
12588 White Osprey Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-11%)	5mo	$295,000	$157	46
12644 White Osprey	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,980 (-6%)	14mo	$300,000	$152	45
12518 White Osprey Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-11%)	15mo	$335,000	$179	41
12960 Westfield Loop	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,807 (-14%)	9mo	$310,000	$172	40
13108 6th St	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,924 (-9%)	17mo	$285,000	$148	35
12584 S White Osprey Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,876 (-11%)	18mo	$283,000	$151	35
13017 5th St	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,346 (+11%)	22mo	$350,000	$149	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,827
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-25,392
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,527/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,826

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $117	+0% $52	+5% $-12	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-22	+0% $52	+5% $127	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $111	base $52	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $229,000 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Welcome to this opportunity-filled home in Lillian, Alabama, priced at $241,000! This property offers solid bones and great potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. With a functional layout and established setting, it’s the perfect canvas for someone looking to add their own personal style and updates. The home does require repairs and cosmetic improvements, making it ideal for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project. The interior is ready for a refresh, and the exterior—including the backyard—offers space to redesign and create your own outdoor retreat. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood with convenient access to Perdido Bay, nearby Florida amenities, and the growing Foley area, this property combines location, potential, and value. If you’re looking for a home you can truly make your own, this is it! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-04-12
    listed $241,000 Active 936-char remark

    Show marketing remark (936 chars)

    Welcome to this opportunity-filled home in Lillian, Alabama, priced at $241,000! This property offers solid bones and great potential for the right buyer ready to bring their vision to life. With a functional layout and established setting, it’s the perfect canvas for someone looking to add their own personal style and updates. The home does require repairs and cosmetic improvements, making it ideal for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project. The interior is ready for a refresh, and the exterior—including the backyard—offers space to redesign and create your own outdoor retreat. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood with convenient access to Perdido Bay, nearby Florida amenities, and the growing Foley area, this property combines location, potential, and value. If you’re looking for a home you can truly make your own, this is it! Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2022-01-11
    soldstatus $224,900
21. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $224,900 455-char remark

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Check out this beautiful home in Annabeth Place. This 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick home is move-in ready. The fenced in backyard has an above ground pool for the kids to play in or just relax on a sunny day. The pool house comes with a bathroom. Inside you’ll find over 2,100 sqft will give you and your family plenty of space. The kitchen opens up to the living room with nice high ceilings. Don’t miss this great home in a great neighborhood.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,527
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,817
• − Management: −$1,817
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$3,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $1,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lillian, AL
• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $229,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $241,000 BCAR
• 2022-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $224,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $224,900 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,527 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.