16 Fawn Grv · Jackson, MS 39212

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,653 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 0.28 ac lot Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Probate Estate Sale. The property is being sold AS-Is, No Warranties or repairs.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sykes Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #319 of 375 statewide, top 88%, 325 students, 100% FRL); Peeples Middle School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 179 statewide, top 79%, 298 students, 100% FRL); Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Fawn Grv	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,765 (+7%)	2mo	$112,500	$64	86
210 Swan Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,742 (+5%)	7mo	$128,800	$74	81
343 Swan Ridge Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,663 (+1%)	1mo	$129,000	$78	78
7 Woodstown Pl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,622 (-2%)	20mo	$169,000	$104	77
465 Heritage Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+8%)	10mo	$145,000	$81	66
416 Heritage Pl	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-3%)	21mo	$157,000	$98	62
410 Heritage Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,436 (-13%)	3mo	$200,000	$139	62
4790 Old Poplar Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	4mo	$160,000	$100	60
169 Fox Meadows Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-11%)	12mo	$145,000	$98	52
4787 Old Lake Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+2%)	20mo	$143,000	$85	50
113 Lakeshore Rd	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,799 (+9%)	18mo	$157,000	$87	47
209 Holly Hill Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-10%)	8mo	$130,000	$88	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,295
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $16,421
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,917/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $234	+0% $195	+5% $155	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $138	+0% $195	+5% $252	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $230	base $195	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Elton Park Dr Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$1,399	$1.29	14d	9	1.18mi
306 Gary Daniels Dr Byram, MS	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	1.25mi
156 McCluer Rd Apt A Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,300	$1.16	21d	1	1.28mi
270 Wildwood Ct Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   listed $139,000 Active
3. 2002-03-04
   soldstatus
4. 2000-03-31
   soldstatus
5. 1997-07-21
   soldstatus
6. 1993-08-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,917 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,337
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,917
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,387
• − Management: −$1,387
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29
• After-tax cash flow: $2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-19 Listed $139,000 MLSU
• 2002-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,917 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.