2210 Old Hwy 99 Rd #15 · Mount Vernon, WA 98237

$20,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1977 $22/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming and cozy, 2 bedroom, 1 bath home nestled in a quiet, established 55+, mobile home park community. This vintage single-wide offers a large living area, functional kitchen with a small dining area as well as a comfortable primary bedroom with adjoining bathroom. All appliances included. Enjoy affordable living with low maintenance featuring a covered porch, carport and lots of storage with convenient access to local amenities and I-5. "Sold As Is".

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Covered porch
• Large living area

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• COVERED PORCH
• CARPORT
• LOTS OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 94.7% vs local median 2.4% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#106 in WA, #2,120 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• Mount Vernon School District (urban): math 41% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #189 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($142 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,885 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 94.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 315.74%
• DSCR: 15.05
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,849
• List price: $20,500
• Delta: -56.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2210 Old Highway 99 South Rd #31	0.00mi	2/1.0	938 (+2%)	1mo	$45,000	$48	95
2210 Old Highway 99 S #12	0.06mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	6mo	$20,000	$22	90
2210 Old Hwy 99 St	0.06mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	15mo	$30,000	$32	83
2522 Old Highway 99 Rd S #6	0.21mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	1mo	$60,000	$61	77
1009 Parkside Ter	0.23mi	2/1.0	800 (-13%)	24mo	$61,000	$76	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.36×
• Total profit: $99,666
• Equity at exit: $18,468

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 40.06×
• Total profit: $224,180
• Equity at exit: $39,827

Cash invested: $5,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98237

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$108
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $178/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $1,388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $320

Max offer price $20,500

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,400	-5% $1,394	+0% $1,388	+5% $1,382	+10% $1,376
Rent	-10% $1,224	-5% $1,306	+0% $1,388	+5% $1,470	+10% $1,552
Rate	-1.0pp $1,398	-0.5pp $1,393	base $1,388	+0.5pp $1,383	+1.0pp $1,377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,125
• Closing costs: $615
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1221 S 12th St Mount Vernon, WA	2.0	1.0	833	$2,195	$2.64	44d	1	0.69mi
1511 Shirley Pl Mount Vernon, WA	2.0	1.0	936	$2,250	$2.40	44d	1	0.81mi
1002 S 12th St Mount Vernon, WA	2.0	1.0	1052	$2,575	$2.45	21d	1	0.85mi
1011 E Division St Unit 103 Mount Vernon, WA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	44d	1	1.22mi
130 Stanford Dr Unit C Mount Vernon, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,595	$1.99	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $20,500 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,500 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $20,500 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,500 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $20,500 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $20,500 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,500 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,500 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricestatus $20,500 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $22,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $178 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $201 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AO · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,928
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,148
• − Property taxes: −$178
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$596
• Taxable income: $17,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,187
• After-tax cash flow: $12,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon School District
• NCES district ID: 5305400
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,829
• Composite: 40.14/100
• National rank: #7848
• State rank: #189 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #2120

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, WA
• City population: 48,861
• Population (ZIP): 5,110

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.52%
• Current HPI: 533.5113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $22,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $178 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.