148 Joslen Blvd · Lorenz Park, NY 12534

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2002 0.47 ac lot Est $403k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Back on Market due to a Municipal issue that has been fixed by the seller. Set on a half-acre in a well-traveled area near the local school, this three-bedroom, three-bath home offers a strong starting point for buyers who value location and opportunity. With shopping, daily essentials, and the restaurants, galleries, and waterfront of Hudson just minutes away, this is a place that stays connected to everything happening around it. The home is winterized and ready for its next phase. A functional footprint and three bathrooms provide flexibility for renovation, while the non-operational furnace clearly positions this property for cash or rehab buyers prepared to take on a project with purpo

Key facts

• Half-acre
• Three bathrooms
• Near local school

Tags

• HALF-ACRE
• NEAR LOCAL SCHOOL
• THREE BATHROOMS
• WATERFRONT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $593 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#498 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,512/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $270,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,535
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 James Street St	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,825 (-2%)	6mo	$396,718	$217	81
45 James St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,820 (-2%)	22mo	$460,000	$253	73
1 Carole Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,781 (-4%)	6mo	$379,500	$213	72
13 James St	0.16mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,702 (-8%)	2mo	$402,500	$236	68
12 Fabiano Blvd	0.15mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,660 (-10%)	10mo	$315,000	$190	58
265 Washington Blvd. Blvd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,934 (+4%)	21mo	$411,570	$213	54
15 Spring St	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (-0%)	21mo	$514,500	$278	42
334 Joslen Blvd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,677 (-10%)	11mo	$270,000	$161	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $206,352
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.11×
• Total profit: $624,374
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$624 /mo · $7,488/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $593

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,760

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
437 State St Hudson, NY	3.0	3.0	1800	$8,000	$4.44	44d	1	1.05mi
258 Warren St Hudson, NY	3.0	2.0	2464	$5,300	$2.15	23d	1	1.21mi
227 Warren St Unit 3 Hudson, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,600	$1.86	23d	1	1.26mi
210 Allen St Hudson, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$2,900	$2.07	23d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $275,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-03-02
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-04
   listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,488 · $624/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,488 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$7,488
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,371
• − Management: −$3,371
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $3,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$751
• After-tax cash flow: $6,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lorenz Park

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #498
• US rank: #8738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lorenz Park, NY
• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $275,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,488 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.