407 W 4th St · Elmira, NY 14901

$39,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1910 10,628 sqft lot $40/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 151 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 10.1% in Elmira — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $40k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.23%
• DSCR: 4.12
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,301
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -61.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
313 W 4th St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-13%)	5mo	$20,000	$23	59
321 Roe Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+5%)	13mo	$81,000	$78	50
1012 Johnson St	0.67mi	2/1.0	962 (-3%)	16mo	$75,000	$78	50
1055 Davis St	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,034 (+5%)	17mo	$130,000	$126	43
104 Front St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	894 (-10%)	8mo	$78,000	$87	42
340 Webber Pl	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (+14%)	9mo	$115,000	$102	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $63,391
• Equity at exit: $35,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.5%
• Equity multiple: 14.78×
• Total profit: $153,964
• Equity at exit: $77,517

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14901

• Home prices YoY: 15.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 W Church St Apt 2 Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	0.36mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	44d	1	0.53mi
970 Scio St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	911	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.67mi
711 W Water St Unit 1 Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	590	$1,100	$1.86	44d	1	0.74mi
410 E 2nd St Unit FS3W Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	44d	1	0.75mi
1056 Walnut St Unit 4 Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	44d	1	0.77mi
808 Winsor Ave Elmira, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.90mi
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $39,900 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 136 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 135 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $39,900 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

18. 2026-05-01
    status Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

19. 2025-08-26
    historical Active Under Contract 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

20. 2025-08-26
    status Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

21. 2025-08-21
    historical Active Under Contract 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

22. 2025-08-11
    listed $34,900 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Refreshed old home awaits it's new owner. Your choice of 2 or 3 bedrooms. Priced for a investor or just someone who's looking to stop paying rent

23. 2024-11-21
    soldstatus $15,000
24. 2024-11-18
    soldstatus $15,000 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Good bones with a large lot in need of a new owner to rehab this home into an investment or a place to call home at an affordable price.

25. 2023-12-11
    listed $19,900 136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (136 chars)

    Good bones with a large lot in need of a new owner to rehab this home into an investment or a place to call home at an affordable price.

26. 2000-09-21
    soldstatus $15,500
27. 2000-09-15
    soldstatus $15,500
28. 2000-05-18
    listed $17,900
29. 2000-05-16
    soldstatus $33,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $6,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,430

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.34%
• Current HPI: 236.2674
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+20.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-26 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-26 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-21 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $34,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-18 Sold (MLS) $15,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-12-11 Listed $19,900 UNYREIS
• 2000-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2000-09-15 Sold (MLS) $15,500 UNYREIS
• 2000-05-18 Listed $17,900 UNYREIS
• 2000-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $33,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,251 · -11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.