1302 W Ajo Way #127 · Tucson, AZ 85713

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 2026 Good condition $74/sqft · 44% below area Est $160k · 44% under $675/mo HOA · 66% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.6

Listing remarks MLS

* ALSO AVAILABLE FOR RENT: $1,450/MO * Welcome to Lot 127, a spacious 2 Bed 2 Bath home in Desert Pueblo Estates, a 55+ Community! This home is brand new inside with top of the line fixtures, brand new appliances, new AC Unit, new counter tops, new flooring and carpet, a large patio and covered parking, new toilets, and much more! Located in a quiet portion of the park near the second clubhouse, this home gives you easy access to a pool and spa, gym, billiards room, and garden! This one won't last, schedule your tour today! If you are over the age of 40, please reach out for more information.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• New counter tops
• Covered parking

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• NEW FLOORING
• LARGE PATIO
• COVERED PARKING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $89,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$160,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $19k (78.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (78.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -0.2% vs local median 3.8% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Gale Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #438 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 335 students, 54% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 312 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 66% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,226 (78.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: -0.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.22%
• DSCR: -0.03
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,000
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -44.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #106	0.60mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,188 (-1%)	6mo	$76,200	$64	56
655 W 42nd St	0.95mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,150 (-4%)	2mo	$230,000	$200	51
2276 S Devon Loop	0.91mi	2/1.0	1,152 (-4%)	11mo	$205,000	$178	45
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #71	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,238 (+3%)	22mo	$122,795	$99	43
2640 S Cottonwood Ln #81	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,365 (+14%)	24mo	$50,000	$37	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -76.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.91×
• Total profit: $-47,495
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.61×
• Total profit: $-89,994
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $87,000 ($71/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +88.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$675
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $-482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $19,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-421	-5% $-451	+0% $-482	+5% $-513	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-523	+0% $-482	+5% $-442	+10% $-401
Rate	-1.0pp $-437	-0.5pp $-460	base $-482	+0.5pp $-505	+1.0pp $-529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$844	$1.18	52d	4	0.32mi
3311 S Placita Saltillo Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,295	$1.37	17d	1	0.37mi
3655 S San Rafael Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1204	$1,650	$1.37	93d	1	0.44mi
1655 W Ajo Way Unit 453 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,800	$1.33	20d	1	0.58mi
2800 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	663	$1,173	$1.77	16d	17	0.59mi
2640 S Cottonwood Ln Unit 13 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	93d	1	0.62mi
3528 S Mission Rd #2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	35d	1	0.70mi
2410 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	620	$1,158	$1.87	28d	15	0.80mi
1808 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,395	$1.11	93d	1	0.81mi
3601 S 16th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	523	$1,025	$1.96	93d	1	0.83mi
1846 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	30d	1	0.86mi
1866 W Caravelle Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,500	$1.45	39d	1	0.89mi
3619 S 14th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	869	$1,375	$1.58	39d	1	0.92mi
673 W 41st St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	41d	1	0.95mi
673 W 41st St #1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	72d	1	0.95mi
1975 W 36th St Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,245	$1.87	20d	1	1.00mi
1325 W Silverlake Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,400	$1.30	28d	1	1.00mi
2012 W Dozemary Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,650	$1.11	17d	1	1.03mi
631 W 40th St Unit 637 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	890	$995	$1.12	30d	1	1.03mi
3511 S 12th Ave Unit 1101 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	752	$950	$1.26	93d	1	1.07mi
3480 S Clark Ave Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	16d	1	1.10mi
3420 S Clark Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	61d	1	1.11mi
416 W 44th St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$900	$1.15	72d	1	1.14mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1871SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	52d	1	1.18mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1853SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	17d	1	1.18mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Unit 1851SANJOSE Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	70d	1	1.18mi
1880 S San Antonio Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	72d	2	1.18mi
3450 S Liberty Ave Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	950	$1,475	$1.55	93d	1	1.23mi
3917 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,590	$1.52	52d	1	1.34mi
4213 S Lundy Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,300	$0.95	41d	1	1.36mi
3638 S 9th Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	945	$1,450	$1.53	16d	1	1.37mi
251 W 38th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	33d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail $675/mo · $8,100/yr

• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $89,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $89,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $89,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $89,000 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $89,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $89,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $89,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $89,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $89,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $89,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $89,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $89,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $89,000 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $89,000 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $89,000 Active 109 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $89,000 Active 108 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $89,000 Active 107 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $89,000 Active 106 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $89,000 Active 105 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $89,000 Active 104 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $89,000 Active 103 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $89,000 Active 102 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $89,000 Active 101 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $89,000 Active 100 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 98 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $89,000 Active 97 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 96 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $89,000 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $89,000 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $89,000 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $89,000 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $89,000 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $89,000 Active 83 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $89,000 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $89,000 Active 79 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $89,000 Active 78 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $89,000 Active 77 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $89,000 Active 76 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $89,000 Active 74 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $89,000 Active 71 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $89,000 Active 70 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 69 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 68 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$982
• − Management: −$982
• − HOA: −$8,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable loss: −$7,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,715
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new, move-in-ready manufactured home in Desert Pueblo Estates offers top-of-the-line fixtures, new appliances, and a spacious layout. With a quiet location and easy access to community amenities, it's an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install a smart thermostat — Saves energy and attracts eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart security system — Enhances safety and attracts buyers and renters who value security. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gale Elementary School F AZ #438/1,109 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Valencia Middle School F AZ #210/218 Nat'l #13,725/14,009 High Cholla High School F AZ #343/381 Nat'l #16,463/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,066,056 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $89,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Listed $90,000 Zillow