3955 Coffee Rd #92 · Modesto, CA 95355

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 2004 Est $130k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Silverwood Mobile Home Park-a desirable 55+ gated community(with allowance for 2nd resident to be 45+)! This spacious and versatile 2-3 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home offers comfortable living with an open floor plan designed for ease and accessibility. The home features ADA accessibility throughout, making it ideal for a variety of lifestyle needs. Recent updates include fresh exterior and some interior painting, recent A/C tuned with a new capacitor installed and freshly cleaned carpets. Step outside to enjoy a large patio area ideal for entertaining, along with a storage shed providing additional space. The home is functional and ready for occupancy, while offering an e

Key facts

• Gated community
• Large patio area
• Community club house

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ADA ACCESSIBILITY
• LARGE PATIO AREA
• STORAGE SHED
• COMMUNITY CLUB HOUSE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 3955 Coffee Rd #92, Modesto, CA 95355; Directions: From Sylvan go north on Coffee to Silverwood Park; once in the park stay to the right and follow to the last row — home is on the right.
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (note: listing shows a land lease amount entry)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Built in 2004
• Construction: Wood skirting; Shingle/composition roof; Manufactured home (Golden West)
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry closet; Laminate counters; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing gas oven; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Covered deck and porch with porch ramp; Skylight(s) in the living room; Dining and living room combined
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home; 220V outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.05%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,032
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3955 Coffee #53	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$81,900	$57	91
3955 Coffee Rd #71	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	11mo	$95,000	$73	67
3 Schooner Ln	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	7mo	$118,840	$83	60
19 Schooner Ln	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	2mo	$114,500	$85	57
137 Clipper Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,489 (-2%)	19mo	$115,000	$77	53
195 Schooner Ln	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,322 (-13%)	4mo	$132,000	$100	50
12 Schooner Ln	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	20mo	$110,000	$69	49
22 Schooner Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	14mo	$115,000	$86	48
132 Sloop	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	10mo	$138,000	$103	47
68 Clipper	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	14mo	$160,000	$119	46
67 Clipper	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-11%)	10mo	$125,000	$93	44
93 Schooner Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-14%)	3mo	$150,000	$116	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $34,355
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $87,772
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	21d	1	0.21mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	13d	1	0.35mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	23d	1	0.54mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	13d	1	1.02mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	13d	1	1.08mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	23d	1	1.29mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	13d	10	1.34mi
1308 Ensenada Dr Unit 5 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $110,000 Pending 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $9,290
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,230
• After-tax cash flow: $8,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B