16342 E Dixileta Dr · Rio Verde, AZ 85262

$500,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2018 1.00 ac lot $305/sqft · 5% below area Est $528k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in North Scottsdale near Rio Verde, this 2018-built home sits on a spacious ~1-acre parcel with no HOA! Enjoy privacy, open space, and incredible desert surroundings just outside the city. This 1,639 sq ft home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, tall ceilings, and an open layout with quartz countertops, a walk-in pantry, and an eat-in kitchen. Surrounded by natural desert landscape with beautiful mountain views, this property offers true Arizona living. The North Scottsdale location provides the perfect balance of quiet desert lifestyle while still being close to everything the area has to offer.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open layout
• No hoa

Tags

• NO HOA
• SPACIOUS PARCEL
• DESERT SURROUNDINGS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $437k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $437k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Rio Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#194 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 588 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $500k implies a 1011% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $437,335 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,694
• List price: $500,000
• Delta: -5.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16214 E Dixileta Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+0%)	4mo	$495,000	$302	84
16206 E Dixileta Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-4%)	8mo	$525,000	$333	74
16302 E Bobwhite Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,637 (0%)	10mo	$540,000	$330	72
16041 E Duane Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,637 (0%)	15mo	$560,000	$342	66
16345 E Morning Vista Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,637 (0%)	22mo	$550,000	$336	64
16023 E Rancho Tierra Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-4%)	2mo	$545,000	$346	56
16323 E Lone Tree Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,858 (+14%)	20mo	$497,300	$268	55
16705 E Montgomery Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,637 (0%)	22mo	$545,000	$333	49
16314 E Bobwhite Way	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,832 (+12%)	9mo	$565,000	$308	48
16733 E Duane Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-8%)	17mo	$528,000	$349	46
16917 E Dixileta Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-6%)	15mo	$470,000	$306	40
16029 E Rancho Laredo Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,795 (+10%)	11mo	$550,000	$306	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-47,335
• Equity at exit: $74,552

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $1,431
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,373 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,099/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$918
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,699

Max offer price $500,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16607 E Desert Vw Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1463	$3,995	$2.73	24d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $500,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $500,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $500,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $500,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $500,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $500,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $500,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $500,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $500,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $500,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $500,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $500,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $515,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $515,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $515,000 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Located in North Scottsdale near Rio Verde, this 2018-built home sits on a spacious ~1-acre parcel with no HOA! Enjoy privacy, open space, and incredible desert surroundings just outside the city. This 1,639 sq ft home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, tall ceilings, and an open layout with quartz countertops, a walk-in pantry, and an eat-in kitchen. Surrounded by natural desert landscape with beautiful mountain views, this property offers true Arizona living. The North Scottsdale location provides the perfect balance of quiet desert lifestyle while still being close to everything the area has to offer.

17. 2018-04-04
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,099 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,300 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,201/yr (+$183/mo · 200.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$1,099
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,198
• − Management: −$4,198
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$496
• After-tax cash flow: $6,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Verde

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #19880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1044.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $515,000 ARMLS
• 2018-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,099 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.