1313 Willow Dr · Columbia, MS 39429

$47,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

0.37 ac lot $43/sqft · 30% above area Est $50k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is approximately 1500 sq ft and located in Columbia. 3 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath. Being sold as is but has the potential to be a great investment for a starter home or rental.

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Listed 183 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $47k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $685 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $47k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#154 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Columbia School District (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 130 in MS (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $325 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.49%
• DSCR: 3.78
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,518
• List price: $47,000
• Delta: -5.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $36,062
• Equity at exit: $7,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $87,731
• Equity at exit: $4,064

Cash invested: $13,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39429

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$246
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $435

Max offer price $47,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $712	-5% $699	+0% $685	+5% $672	+10% $659
Rent	-10% $582	-5% $634	+0% $685	+5% $737	+10% $788
Rate	-1.0pp $709	-0.5pp $697	base $685	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $661

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,750
• Closing costs: $1,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $47,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $47,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $47,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $47,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $47,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $47,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $47,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $47,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $47,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $47,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $47,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $47,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $47,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $47,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2025-12-19
    listed $47,000 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    This home is approximately 1500 sq ft and located in Columbia. 3 Bedroom 1 1/2 bath. Being sold as is but has the potential to be a great investment for a starter home or rental.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,633
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,250
• − Management: −$1,250
• − Depreciation: −$1,367
• Taxable income: $7,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,911
• After-tax cash flow: $6,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia School District
• NCES district ID: 2801170
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,192
• Composite: 31.87/100
• National rank: #5866
• State rank: #45 of 130 in MS

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #15293

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Columbia, MS
• Population (ZIP): 16,583

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,813 people
• By 2030: 21,301 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 18,176 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 15,215 · -33.3%
• By 2075: 9,388 · -58.8%
• By 2100: 5,335 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 34% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.6) · D 28.7% · R 70.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -41.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.11%
• Current HPI: 132.3278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $47,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $927 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.