910 Success St · Gilmer, TX 75644

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot $72/sqft · 40% below area Est $157k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this two bedroom home located in Gilmer, TX. This property offers an attached carport and storage room. The kitchen contains a peninsula countertop with room for bar seating and opens up into the dining area. Primary suite offers an attached half-bathroom. The main bathroom is just down the hall from both bedrooms. The exterior offers a fenced backyard and includes a covered patio. Come check this great opportunity out before it is gone. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Attached carport
• Covered patio

Tags

• ATTACHED CARPORT
• STORAGE ROOM
• PENINSULA COUNTERTOP
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.84%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,087
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -39.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Brooksy St	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,379 (+4%)	10mo	$149,900	$109	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $61,507
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $173,735
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,108/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
620 Mary St Gilmer, TX	3.0	1.0	1220	$1,200	$0.98	43d	1	0.30mi
300 Pecan St Unit 8 Gilmer, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$975	$1.11	43d	1	0.52mi
758 Machen Ln Unit 3 Gilmer, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,650	$1.03	13d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-14
    listed $103,500 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    Check out this two bedroom home located in Gilmer, TX. This property offers an attached carport and storage room. The kitchen contains a peninsula countertop with room for bar seating and opens up into the dining area. Primary suite offers an attached half-bathroom. The main bathroom is just down the hall from both bedrooms. The exterior offers a fenced backyard and includes a covered patio. Come check this great opportunity out before it is gone. Sold AS-IS.

19. 2025-04-30
    price $135,000
20. 2025-04-21
    price $150,000
21. 2025-04-01
    price $155,000
22. 2021-08-09
    soldstatus
23. 2021-08-06
    soldstatus
24. 2021-08-06
    soldstatus
25. 2021-08-06
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2021-07-26
    status Pending
27. 2021-06-12
    listed $119,800
28. 2021-05-01
    listed $119,800 Active
29. 2021-04-13
    listed $119,800
30. 2018-04-10
    soldstatus
31. 2018-04-10
    soldstatus
32. 2018-02-07
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,108 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,108 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$3,108
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$104
• After-tax cash flow: $1,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilmer, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+29.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $103,500 NTREIS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $135,000 GTAR
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $150,000 GTAR
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $155,000 GTAR
• 2021-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-08-06 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2021-08-06 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2021-07-26 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-06-12 Listed $119,800 GTAR
• 2021-05-01 Listed $119,800 NTREIS
• 2021-04-13 Listed $119,800 LAAR
• 2018-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-10 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2018-02-07 Listed $79,900 LAAR

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,108 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.