7707 Lumber Jack Dr · Houston, TX 77040

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1977 6,786 sqft lot $119/sqft · 19% below area Est $210k · 19% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom and 2 bath home located in the quiet Woodland Oaks Subdivision. this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,422 sq ft of living space. The property currently presents a prime opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project.

Key facts

• 6,786 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ermel El (math 20% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 449 students, 92% FRL); Hoffman Middle (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 637 students, 91% FRL); Aldine H S (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 2,663 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $169k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,603
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -19.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7707 Lumber Jack Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,422 (0%)	1mo	$169,000	$119	100
7823 Lumber Jack Drive Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-3%)	2mo	$205,000	$149	87
7306 Log Hollow Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,445 (+2%)	2mo	$257,900	$178	79
7935 Yellow Pine Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-3%)	0mo	$195,000	$141	76
7818 Kellwood Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-1%)	1mo	$240,000	$171	71
7210 Lumber Jack Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+6%)	1mo	$225,000	$150	70
7102 Log Hollow Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-0%)	2mo	$249,900	$176	70
7727 Log Hollow Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+14%)	1mo	$160,000	$99	68
7731 Deadwood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,307 (-8%)	3mo	$210,000	$161	65
7843 Yellow Pine Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,627 (+14%)	2mo	$215,000	$132	64
7611 Woodland West Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-6%)	1mo	$239,999	$179	57
7410 Pierrepont Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+10%)	1mo	$249,900	$160	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-38,893
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-60,873
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77040

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,613/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $150,240

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-58	+0% $-106	+5% $-154	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-173	+0% $-106	+5% $-40	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-63	base $-106	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7058 W Gulf Bank Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	870	$1,364	$1.57	5d	3	0.77mi
6807 Ashland Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$1,850	$1.03	45d	1	1.07mi
7740 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1325	$1,916	$1.45	0d	53	1.31mi
7846 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1647	$1,549	$0.94	26d	1	1.44mi
8515 Bartletts Harbor Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$1,989	$1.10	18d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Pending 201 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,000 Pending 200 DOM
3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   3 bedroom and 2 bath home located in the quiet Woodland Oaks Subdivision. this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,422 sq ft of living space. The property currently presents a prime opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project.

4. 2025-11-12
   listed $169,000 Active 243-char remark

   Show marketing remark (243 chars)

   3 bedroom and 2 bath home located in the quiet Woodland Oaks Subdivision. this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,422 sq ft of living space. The property currently presents a prime opportunity for investors or buyers seeking a renovation project.

5. 1991-11-18
   soldstatus $44,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,613 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,613 · $468/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$5,613
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$4,012
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$963
• After-tax cash flow: $-311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 50,977
• Household income: $65,028
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2785.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 21% Two or more races 19% Black 15% Asian 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% Vietnamese 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.41%
• Current HPI: 240.6178
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+278.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 1991-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $44,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,613 · +53.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.