140 Azalea · Sam Rayburn, TX 75951

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 470 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Desirable unrestricted fish camp near the Angelina River and Lake Sam Rayburn in quiet Rolling Glenn Estates near Ebenezer Park. Set on a double lot with mature trees, there is room for a second home or even a couple RV's. Three storage buildings offer space for your lake toys and boat, equipped with electricity and water. Fish cleaning station set up and ready to go. Darling, furnished 2 bed, 1 bath home has ample personal storage and plenty of room for the family to enjoy a weekend at the lake. Bring your fishing poles and start enjoying the lake.

Key facts

• Furnished home
• Double lot
• Storage buildings

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• FISH CLEANING STATION
• FURNISHED HOME

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Residential manufactured home
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot approximately 0.22 acre; Subdivision: Rolling Glenn Ests

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Central heating and cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($923 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 1.6% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.44%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $7,295
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $29,348
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $302	+0% $280	+5% $257	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $207	-5% $243	+0% $280	+5% $316	+10% $353
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $296	base $280	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 555-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$886
• − Management: −$886
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$592
• After-tax cash flow: $2,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, but the exterior and foundation are in good condition. Updates to the interior will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — outdated and in need of replacement
• Major bathroom fixtures — basic and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeted flooring — improves comfort and appearance
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and improves functionality
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · outdated and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · basic and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeted flooring — improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — enhances functionality and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $65,000 Deep East Texas MLS