5409 Smallwood Cv · Horn Lake, MS 38637

$141,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1980 0.31 ac lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $162k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathrooms with a functional and inviting layout. The main living areas offer comfortable space for both everyday living and entertaining, while the kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space and opens to the dining and living areas for easy flow. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom and generous closet space. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office, or hobbies. Enjoy the backyard with space to relax or entertain. Great opportunity with plenty of potential!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.0% in Horn Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#196 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $981 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $142k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,386 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.42%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,833
• List price: $141,900
• Delta: -12.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5770 Chickasaw Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+0%)	6mo	$175,000	$156	86
5722 Chickasaw Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-4%)	1mo	$189,000	$176	84
5161 Crestwood Cv	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,157 (+4%)	10mo	$154,900	$134	74
5205 Gray Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,183 (+6%)	9mo	$164,900	$139	73
5951 Adams Cir	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-8%)	12mo	$179,900	$175	68
5820 Gray Cv	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,052 (-6%)	14mo	$179,999	$171	67
5089 Woody Cv	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,202 (+8%)	3mo	$149,900	$125	66
5654 Crestwood Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+6%)	12mo	$184,980	$157	64
5135 Woody Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,243 (+11%)	5mo	$193,800	$156	64
5605 Choctaw Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,210 (+8%)	10mo	$120,000	$99	63
5656 Mississippi 301	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+5%)	1mo	$209,900	$179	60
5713 Cherokee Dr Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,250 (+12%)	13mo	$204,900	$164	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,721
• Equity at exit: $21,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,131
• Equity at exit: $12,269

Cash invested: $39,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38637

• Home prices YoY: -13.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$744
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,398/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $141,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,475
• Closing costs: $4,257
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5318 Haynes Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,583	$1.32	44d	1	0.25mi
5840 Gray Cv Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,295	$1.21	44d	1	0.27mi
5108 Gray Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,325	$1.15	24d	1	0.32mi
5108 Gray Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,325	$1.15	15d	1	0.32mi
5229 Nail Rd Horn Lake, MS	3.0	1.0	912	$1,235	$1.35	24d	1	0.33mi
4506 Shadow Hollow Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,645	$1.27	2d	1	1.24mi
6392 Manchester Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,715	$1.27	2d	1	1.29mi
4355 Shadow Ridge Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,760	$1.30	4d	1	1.44mi
5565 Chapel Hill Dr Horn Lake, MS	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,543	$1.39	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $141,900 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $141,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $144,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $144,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-03-31
    listed $149,900 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    Spacious single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathrooms with a functional and inviting layout. The main living areas offer comfortable space for both everyday living and entertaining, while the kitchen provides ample cabinet and counter space and opens to the dining and living areas for easy flow. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom and generous closet space. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, office, or hobbies. Enjoy the backyard with space to relax or entertain. Great opportunity with plenty of potential!

13. 2026-02-18
    historical
14. 2026-02-02
    status Active
15. 2026-02-01
    historical
16. 2025-12-18
    price $144,000
17. 2025-12-15
    status Active
18. 2025-12-08
    historical
19. 2025-10-23
    price $149,000
20. 2025-10-01
    listed $153,000 Active
21. 2024-09-19
    historical $1,295
22. 2024-09-13
    price $1,295
23. 2024-09-13
    price $1,395
24. 2024-09-11
    price $1,295
25. 2024-09-04
    price $1,320
26. 2024-08-28
    price $1,345
27. 2024-08-19
    price $1,395
28. 2024-08-17
    listed $1,420
29. 2022-08-07
    price $1,290
30. 2022-08-02
    price $1,290
31. 2016-11-11
    soldstatus
32. 2016-11-11
    soldstatus $37,250 Closed
33. 2016-11-02
    status Pending
34. 2015-12-08
    listed $65,000 Active
35. 2015-09-29
    listed $65,000
36. 2013-12-23
    soldstatus
37. 2013-12-11
    historical
38. 2013-11-21
    listed $60,000
39. 2012-09-07
    historical
40. 2012-08-22
    listed $65,000
41. 2012-05-04
    soldstatus
42. 2012-04-25
    listed $40,000
43. 2010-09-30
    historical
44. 2010-02-12
    listed $53,500
45. 1997-08-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,398 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,398 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,949
• − Property taxes: −$1,398
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,497
• − Management: −$1,497
• − Depreciation: −$4,128
• Taxable income: $1,529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$367
• After-tax cash flow: $3,374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Horn Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #17977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horn Lake, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 26,647
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 26,647
• Household income: $53,311
• Rent vs Own: 41.9% rent · 58.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1052.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.08%
• Current HPI: 206.5542
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+180.2% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $149,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $144,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $149,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-01 Listed $153,000 MLSU
• 2024-09-19 Rental Removed $1,295 RENT.
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $1,295 RENT.
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $1,395 RENT.
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $1,295 RENT.
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $1,320 RENT.
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $1,345 RENT.
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $1,395 RENT.
• 2024-08-17 Listed for Rent $1,420 RENT.
• 2022-08-07 Price Changed $1,290 RENT.
• 2022-08-02 Price Changed $1,290 RENT.
• 2016-11-11 Sold (MLS) $37,250 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2016-11-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-11-02 Pending — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2015-12-08 Listed $65,000 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2015-09-29 Listed $65,000 MLSU
• 2013-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-12-11 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2013-11-21 Listed $60,000 MLSU
• 2012-09-07 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2012-08-22 Listed $65,000 MLSU
• 2012-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-25 Listed $40,000 MLSU
• 2010-09-30 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2010-02-12 Listed $53,500 MLSU
• 1997-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,398 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.