Navarre Plan · Marion, TX 78124

$282,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,202 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home boasts a modern and low-maintenance design. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with a nearby study perfect for focusing on important tasks throughout the week. An inviting open-concept living area combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, with a nearby covered patio ready for outdoor entertainment and leisure. A lavish owner's suite completes the home, offering direct access to an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 239 days

🏗️ New construction. The $282,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $552,711.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-28k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (33.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 4.5% in Marion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Norma Krueger El (362 students, 50% FRL); Marion Middle (math 37% / reading 45%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 372 students, 41% FRL); Marion H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 456 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 535 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,810 (33.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.11%
• DSCR: 0.19
• GRM: 24.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $552,711
• List price: $282,999
• Delta: -48.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Haycraft Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,195 (-0%)	19mo	$522,400	$238	59
108 Haycraft	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-5%)	3mo	$599,777	$286	58
203 Colette Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,250 (+2%)	13mo	$555,000	$247	56
123 Colette	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+9%)	3mo	$575,000	$239	55
111 Colette Ln	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,045 (-7%)	15mo	$469,000	$229	54
2102 Monument Hl	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-8%)	2mo	$314,999	$156	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-238,313
• Equity at exit: $82,411

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.58×
• Total profit: $-398,980
• Equity at exit: $47,788

Cash invested: $154,759 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.5 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $311,990 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 179 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +71.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 535
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,898
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$691 /mo · $8,291/yr
• Insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-2,336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,835

Max offer price $214,694

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,954	-5% $-2,145	+0% $-2,336	+5% $-2,527	+10% $-2,718
Rent	-10% $-2,484	-5% $-2,410	+0% $-2,336	+5% $-2,262	+10% $-2,188
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,058	-0.5pp $-2,195	base $-2,336	+0.5pp $-2,479	+1.0pp $-2,625

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,178
• Closing costs: $16,581
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2207 Allison CRK Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,745	$0.94	64d	1	0.19mi
2207 Allison Creek Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$1,800	$0.97	28d	1	0.19mi
426 Nightingale Ave Santa Clara, TX	5.0	4.0	2832	$2,900	$1.02	93d	1	0.86mi
1115 Pigeon Ln Marion, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,895	$1.07	24d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $282,999 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $282,999 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $282,999 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $282,999 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $282,999 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $282,999 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $282,999 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $282,999 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $282,999 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $282,999 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $282,999 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $282,999 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $282,999 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $282,999 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $282,999 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,999 Active 219 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $282,999 Active 218 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $282,999 Active 217 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $282,999 Active 216 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $282,999 Active 215 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,999 Active 214 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $282,999 Active 213 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $282,999 Active 212 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $282,999 Active 211 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $282,999 Active 210 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $282,999 Active 208 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $282,999 Active 207 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $282,999 Active 206 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $281,999 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $281,999 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $281,999 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $281,999 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $281,999 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $281,999 Active 199 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $281,999 Active 198 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $281,999 Active 197 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $281,999 Active 195 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $281,999 Active 193 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $281,999 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $281,999 Active 189 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $281,999 Active 188 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $281,999 Active 187 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $281,999 Active 186 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,999 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,999 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $281,999 Active 180 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $281,999 Active 179 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,999 Active 178 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,999 Active 175 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,999 Active 174 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,960
• − Property taxes: −$8,291
• − Insurance: −$2,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$16,079
• Taxable loss: −$39,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,399
• After-tax cash flow: $-18,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This modern single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a high-ROI opportunity for investors looking to enhance curb appeal and property value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior brick and siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Norma Krueger El Middle Marion Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Marion H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe · 196,854 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $281,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $284,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $291,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $296,999 Zillow
• 2025-12-12 Listed $305,999 Zillow