1034 Bull Hill Rd · Fairgarden, TN 37876

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · Other public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2008 0.74 ac lot $135/sqft · 145% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

Key facts

• 0.74 acre lot
• Built 2008
• Listed 54 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Designated parking; Other parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Detached property; Single-family style (1,680 building area from tax records)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Level with rolling slope; Country setting view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 5 rooms total
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-463/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.9% in Fairgarden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#381 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,357/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 611% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $275k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,677 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,500
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 197.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $140,442
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $403,215
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1127
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $269,412

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $56	+0% $-39	+5% $-134	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-132	+0% $-39	+5% $54	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $31	base $-39	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Owenwood Dr Sevierville, TN	3.0	2.5	1615	$2,500	$1.55	45d	1	1.17mi
2560 C P Howard Dr Sevierville, TN	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,100	$1.45	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

17. 2026-05-05
    status Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

18. 2026-04-27
    historical Pending - Continue to Show - Financing 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

19. 2026-04-27
    status Pending 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

20. 2026-04-25
    listed $275,000 Active 526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

21. 2026-04-25
    listed $275,000 Active 523-char remark

    Show marketing remark (526 chars)

    Escape to peaceful country living with this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation located in the desirable New Center area. Set in a quiet country setting, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience. Inside, you'll find fresh paint throughout and stylish LVP flooring that gives the home a clean, modern feel. Conveniently located just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, and everyday essentials. * * Seller is a licensed Real Estate Agent

22. 2025-07-10
    soldstatus $150,000
23. 2020-03-10
    soldstatus $110,388 Closed

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    This Property is in a multiple offer situation Seller has instructed to take offers till Monday January 27th 5pm. Seller will respond by Tuesday January 28th 5pm. Newly remodeled 4 Bedroom 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation Large kitchen with Island , Fireplace in living room , Deck in front with view of mountains.no original septic system permit found.See attached map that shows approval for reserve area.

24. 2020-01-29
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    This Property is in a multiple offer situation Seller has instructed to take offers till Monday January 27th 5pm. Seller will respond by Tuesday January 28th 5pm. Newly remodeled 4 Bedroom 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation Large kitchen with Island , Fireplace in living room , Deck in front with view of mountains.no original septic system permit found.See attached map that shows approval for reserve area.

25. 2020-01-23
    listed $89,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    This Property is in a multiple offer situation Seller has instructed to take offers till Monday January 27th 5pm. Seller will respond by Tuesday January 28th 5pm. Newly remodeled 4 Bedroom 2008 Riverbirch doublewide on permanent foundation Large kitchen with Island , Fireplace in living room , Deck in front with view of mountains.no original septic system permit found.See attached map that shows approval for reserve area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,148
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,236
• After-tax cash flow: $772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fairgarden

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #24205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+205.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — GSMAR
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — GSMAR
• 2026-04-25 Listed $275,000 GSMAR
• 2026-04-25 Listed $275,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-10 Sold (MLS) $110,388 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-01-29 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2020-01-23 Listed $89,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $266 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.