3173 Foxtail Ln #291 · Evans, CO 80620

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2014 Est $125k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Cave Creek community this 3-bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home features brand new carpet, new interior paint, open floor plan with large living, dining and kitchen area & a large walk-in pantry. Floor plan that separates the primary bedroom & luxury bathroom from the two other bedrooms & bathroom. Lovely outside area to relax , central air condition, storage shed, all kitchen appliances included plus freezer, clothes washer & dryer. This community offers a club house and just a short drive to local restaurants & shopping. Set up you're showing today and bring an offer.

Key facts

• Shed storage
• West-facing deck
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• YARD SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• SHED STORAGE
• WEST-FACING DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved lot with curbs and gutters; Asphalt road frontage on a city street; Builder: CLAT; Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Natural gas available; Electricity available; Cable available; Satellite available; High-speed internet available; Trash service by Republic
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave; Freezer; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate dining room; Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Kitchen island; Window coverings; Fire alarm
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $793 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#104 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.20%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,216
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4130 Mesquite Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+0%)	8mo	$125,000	$86	86
3117 Foxtail Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	13mo	$122,200	$84	82
4134 Mesquite Ln #153	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+0%)	13mo	$130,000	$89	82
4225 Buffalo Trl #396	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	10mo	$132,500	$91	81
4200 Buffalo Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	14mo	$123,112	$85	75
3400 Yucca Cir #218	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	7mo	$120,000	$89	73
3105 Foxtail Ln #308	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	4mo	$135,000	$86	71
3301 Coyote Ln #26	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	3mo	$115,000	$86	70
4205 Buffalo Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-4%)	15mo	$130,000	$93	70
3313 Yucca Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	14mo	$120,000	$77	67
4013 Wapiti Way	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	1mo	$123,000	$78	63
3008 Foxtail Ln #331	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+8%)	14mo	$132,500	$85	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $24,461
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $63,886
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80620

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $793

Break-even live

Break-even rent $970

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2846 Arbor Dr #2898 Evans, CO	2.0	1.5–2.0	1327	$1,738	$1.31	14d	3	0.78mi
3770 Ponderosa Ct #1 Evans, CO	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,650	$1.58	23d	1	0.93mi
2506 32nd St Evans, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$2,025	$1.75	23d	1	1.23mi
3301 Abbey Rd Evans, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$2,112	$2.31	14d	10	1.25mi
1725 Rowan Ln Evans, CO	3.0	1.5	1190	$2,099	$1.76	14d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 635-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,895
• − Management: −$1,895
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $7,933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,904
• After-tax cash flow: $7,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0804410
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,417
• Composite: 19.99/100
• National rank: #8667
• State rank: #71 of 86 in CO

Livability — Evans

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #9005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evans, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 20,798
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 20,798
• Household income: $73,590
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.36%
• Current HPI: 330.6379
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.78%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $125,000 IRES
• 2022-12-15 Sold (MLS) $125,000 IRES
• 2022-11-17 Contingent — IRES
• 2022-10-27 Listed $130,000 IRES

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +440.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.