1815 Selvin Dr #204 · Bel Air South, MD 21015

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2009 $230/sqft · 11% below area Est $287k · 11% under $465/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to refined, low-maintenance living in this beautiful 55+ condominium, ideally situated right in Bel Air! Highlighted by the convenience of an Elevator and amenities such as a gym, a pool, community room and event space. Thoughtfully designed with a desirable, open floor plan, this residence provides both comfort and functionality for everyday living. Enjoy the convenience of elevator access, allowing for easy, stair-free living. The interior has been freshly enhanced with brand new carpeting and crisp new paint, creating a truly move-in ready space. The well-appointed layout features two generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering ample space and privacy. Featuring a huge entryway walk-in closet, for everyday storage needs. Step outside onto your private balcony and take in peaceful, scenic views, an ideal setting for morning coffee and relaxation. This tranquil outdoor space adds an extra layer of enjoyment and relaxation to the home. Residents of this sought-after community also enjoy access to a pool and community center, providing wonderful opportunities for recreation, socializing, and an active lifestyle. With its prime location near shopping, dining, and local amenities, combined with its thoughtful updates and serene setting, this home presents an exceptional opportunity for easy living in the heart of Bel Air!

Key facts

• $465 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,926 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,709
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -11.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-54,825
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-56,091
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,016/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$465
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,629

Max offer price $208,926

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1411 Bonnett Pl Unit F Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.0	1031	$2,450	$2.38	43d	1	0.14mi
812 Tilghman Dr Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,350	$1.78	4d	1	0.28mi
1001 Todd Rd Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,880	$2.20	1d	56	0.42mi
201 Idlewild Rd Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.0–1.5	885	$2,120	$2.40	1d	28	1.23mi
714 Country Village Dr Unit 1C Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,681	$1.58	2d	1	1.26mi
712 Country Village Dr Apt 1B Bel Air, MD	1.0	1.0	819	$1,612	$1.97	3d	1	1.28mi
107 Idlewild Rd Unit 2A Bel Air, MD	2.0	1.5	1270	$2,120	$1.67	2d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $465 · $5,580/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   status $255,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-16
   historical Active Under Contract 1364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1364 chars)

   Welcome to refined, low-maintenance living in this beautiful 55+ condominium, ideally situated right in Bel Air! Highlighted by the convenience of an Elevator and amenities such as a gym, a pool, community room and event space. Thoughtfully designed with a desirable, open floor plan, this residence provides both comfort and functionality for everyday living. Enjoy the convenience of elevator access, allowing for easy, stair-free living. The interior has been freshly enhanced with brand new carpeting and crisp new paint, creating a truly move-in ready space. The well-appointed layout features two generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering ample space and privacy. Featuring a huge entryway walk-in closet, for everyday storage needs. Step outside onto your private balcony and take in peaceful, scenic views, an ideal setting for morning coffee and relaxation. This tranquil outdoor space adds an extra layer of enjoyment and relaxation to the home. Residents of this sought-after community also enjoy access to a pool and community center, providing wonderful opportunities for recreation, socializing, and an active lifestyle. With its prime location near shopping, dining, and local amenities, combined with its thoughtful updates and serene setting, this home presents an exceptional opportunity for easy living in the heart of Bel Air!

9. 2026-05-13
   listed $255,000 Active 1364-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1364 chars)

   Welcome to refined, low-maintenance living in this beautiful 55+ condominium, ideally situated right in Bel Air! Highlighted by the convenience of an Elevator and amenities such as a gym, a pool, community room and event space. Thoughtfully designed with a desirable, open floor plan, this residence provides both comfort and functionality for everyday living. Enjoy the convenience of elevator access, allowing for easy, stair-free living. The interior has been freshly enhanced with brand new carpeting and crisp new paint, creating a truly move-in ready space. The well-appointed layout features two generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering ample space and privacy. Featuring a huge entryway walk-in closet, for everyday storage needs. Step outside onto your private balcony and take in peaceful, scenic views, an ideal setting for morning coffee and relaxation. This tranquil outdoor space adds an extra layer of enjoyment and relaxation to the home. Residents of this sought-after community also enjoy access to a pool and community center, providing wonderful opportunities for recreation, socializing, and an active lifestyle. With its prime location near shopping, dining, and local amenities, combined with its thoughtful updates and serene setting, this home presents an exceptional opportunity for easy living in the heart of Bel Air!

10. 2026-04-13
    historical $255,000 1364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1364 chars)

    Welcome to refined, low-maintenance living in this beautiful 55+ condominium, ideally situated right in Bel Air! Highlighted by the convenience of an Elevator and amenities such as a gym, a pool, community room and event space. Thoughtfully designed with a desirable, open floor plan, this residence provides both comfort and functionality for everyday living. Enjoy the convenience of elevator access, allowing for easy, stair-free living. The interior has been freshly enhanced with brand new carpeting and crisp new paint, creating a truly move-in ready space. The well-appointed layout features two generously sized bedrooms and two full bathrooms, offering ample space and privacy. Featuring a huge entryway walk-in closet, for everyday storage needs. Step outside onto your private balcony and take in peaceful, scenic views, an ideal setting for morning coffee and relaxation. This tranquil outdoor space adds an extra layer of enjoyment and relaxation to the home. Residents of this sought-after community also enjoy access to a pool and community center, providing wonderful opportunities for recreation, socializing, and an active lifestyle. With its prime location near shopping, dining, and local amenities, combined with its thoughtful updates and serene setting, this home presents an exceptional opportunity for easy living in the heart of Bel Air!

11. 2009-06-29
    soldstatus $172,000 Sold 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    55+COMMUNITY OFFERS CARE FREE LIVING! ELEVATORS, COMMUNITY CENTER, POOL & EXERCISE ROOM. 2BR/2BA 2ND FLOOR CONDO OFFERS AN OPEN AND AIRY LIVING/DINING AREA & LOADS OF STORAGE SPACE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SELECT THE FINISHING TOUCHES YOU DESIRE. AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS ON 1ST VISIT OR CALL 410-893-1221 TO REGISTER, NO EXCEPTIONS! OPEN 12 TO 5 WEEKDAYS AND 10 TO 5 WEEKENDS OR BY APPT.

12. 2009-06-29
    soldstatus $172,000

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    55+COMMUNITY OFFERS CARE FREE LIVING! ELEVATORS, COMMUNITY CENTER, POOL & EXERCISE ROOM. 2BR/2BA 2ND FLOOR CONDO OFFERS AN OPEN AND AIRY LIVING/DINING AREA & LOADS OF STORAGE SPACE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SELECT THE FINISHING TOUCHES YOU DESIRE. AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS ON 1ST VISIT OR CALL 410-893-1221 TO REGISTER, NO EXCEPTIONS! OPEN 12 TO 5 WEEKDAYS AND 10 TO 5 WEEKENDS OR BY APPT.

13. 2009-05-08
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    55+COMMUNITY OFFERS CARE FREE LIVING! ELEVATORS, COMMUNITY CENTER, POOL & EXERCISE ROOM. 2BR/2BA 2ND FLOOR CONDO OFFERS AN OPEN AND AIRY LIVING/DINING AREA & LOADS OF STORAGE SPACE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SELECT THE FINISHING TOUCHES YOU DESIRE. AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS ON 1ST VISIT OR CALL 410-893-1221 TO REGISTER, NO EXCEPTIONS! OPEN 12 TO 5 WEEKDAYS AND 10 TO 5 WEEKENDS OR BY APPT.

14. 2009-05-06
    historical
15. 2009-04-29
    price $187,900 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    55+COMMUNITY OFFERS CARE FREE LIVING! ELEVATORS, COMMUNITY CENTER, POOL & EXERCISE ROOM. 2BR/2BA 2ND FLOOR CONDO OFFERS AN OPEN AND AIRY LIVING/DINING AREA & LOADS OF STORAGE SPACE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SELECT THE FINISHING TOUCHES YOU DESIRE. AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS ON 1ST VISIT OR CALL 410-893-1221 TO REGISTER, NO EXCEPTIONS! OPEN 12 TO 5 WEEKDAYS AND 10 TO 5 WEEKENDS OR BY APPT.

16. 2009-01-17
    listed $179,900 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    55+COMMUNITY OFFERS CARE FREE LIVING! ELEVATORS, COMMUNITY CENTER, POOL & EXERCISE ROOM. 2BR/2BA 2ND FLOOR CONDO OFFERS AN OPEN AND AIRY LIVING/DINING AREA & LOADS OF STORAGE SPACE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SELECT THE FINISHING TOUCHES YOU DESIRE. AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS ON 1ST VISIT OR CALL 410-893-1221 TO REGISTER, NO EXCEPTIONS! OPEN 12 TO 5 WEEKDAYS AND 10 TO 5 WEEKENDS OR BY APPT.

17. 2009-01-17
    listed $187,900

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    55+COMMUNITY OFFERS CARE FREE LIVING! ELEVATORS, COMMUNITY CENTER, POOL & EXERCISE ROOM. 2BR/2BA 2ND FLOOR CONDO OFFERS AN OPEN AND AIRY LIVING/DINING AREA & LOADS OF STORAGE SPACE. THERE'S STILL TIME TO SELECT THE FINISHING TOUCHES YOU DESIRE. AGENTS MUST ACCOMPANY BUYERS ON 1ST VISIT OR CALL 410-893-1221 TO REGISTER, NO EXCEPTIONS! OPEN 12 TO 5 WEEKDAYS AND 10 TO 5 WEEKENDS OR BY APPT.

18. 2008-08-11
    historical
19. 2008-07-31
    price
20. 2008-07-16
    price
21. 2008-06-27
    price
22. 2008-05-03
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,016 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,398 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: +$382/yr (+$32/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,016
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − HOA: −$5,580
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+35.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $172,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-29 Sold (MLS) $172,000 MRIS
• 2009-05-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-05-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-29 Price Changed $187,900 MRIS
• 2009-01-17 Listed $179,900 MRIS
• 2009-01-17 Listed $187,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-08-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-07-31 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-07-16 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-06-27 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-05-03 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,016 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.