16 Candee St · Phoenix, NY 13135

$159,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 0.25 ac lot Est $185k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Everything's been done in this rehabilitated home! New: Kitchen, bathroom, roof, furnace, plumbing, electrical, hot water heater, flooring etc. . The property was acquired or rehabilitated using grant funds. Maximum income restrictions apply: 1 person = $55,700. 2 person =$63,600. 3 person =$71,600. 4 person = $79,500. etc. .. Buyer will receive Bargain & Sale Deed with lien covenants. Taxes shown do not reflect any exemptions. Assessed value shown does not reflect "full market value".

Key facts

• Thoughtful upgrades
• Newer kitchen
• Newer roof

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SMART USE OF SPACE
• THOUGHTFUL UPGRADES
• NEWER KITCHEN
• NEWER BATHROOM
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.9% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#613 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Phoenix Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #416 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Michael A Maroun Elementary School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,413 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 667 students, 58% FRL); Emerson J Dillon Middle School (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #445 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 514 students, 60% FRL); John C Birdlebough High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 473 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $159k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,460 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.05%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,328
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Candee St	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,296 (0%)	1mo	$159,000	$123	100
7 Homestead Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,216 (-6%)	1mo	$279,900	$230	83
83 Bridge St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+6%)	8mo	$150,000	$109	72
15 Jefferson St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	1mo	$165,000	$123	68
110 Jefferson St	0.31mi	2/1.5	1,461 (+13%)	2mo	$238,000	$163	63
12 James St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,265 (-2%)	19mo	$86,000	$68	59
377 Main St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,380 (+6%)	1mo	$80,000	$58	57
89 Elm St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+11%)	6mo	$189,000	$131	55
15 James St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (-11%)	5mo	$165,000	$143	52
14 Loomis Ter	0.55mi	2/1.5	1,470 (+13%)	10mo	$220,000	$150	44
115 Volney St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-9%)	11mo	$268,000	$228	40
15 Kay Pat Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+13%)	11mo	$230,000	$157	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $77,074
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $234,612
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13135

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,087/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $132,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-105	+0% $-150	+5% $-195	+10% $-240
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-201	+0% $-150	+5% $-100	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-110	base $-150	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-12-28
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $159,000 Active
4. 2019-12-11
   soldstatus $86,000 Closed Sale or Rented 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Everything's been done in this rehabilitated home! New: Kitchen, bathroom, roof, furnace, plumbing, electrical, hot water heater, flooring etc. . The property was acquired or rehabilitated using grant funds. Maximum income restrictions apply: 1 person = $55,700. 2 person =$63,600. 3 person =$71,600. 4 person = $79,500. etc. .. Buyer will receive Bargain & Sale Deed with lien covenants. Taxes shown do not reflect any exemptions. Assessed value shown does not reflect "full market value".

5. 2019-10-30
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Everything's been done in this rehabilitated home! New: Kitchen, bathroom, roof, furnace, plumbing, electrical, hot water heater, flooring etc. . The property was acquired or rehabilitated using grant funds. Maximum income restrictions apply: 1 person = $55,700. 2 person =$63,600. 3 person =$71,600. 4 person = $79,500. etc. .. Buyer will receive Bargain & Sale Deed with lien covenants. Taxes shown do not reflect any exemptions. Assessed value shown does not reflect "full market value".

6. 2019-09-18
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Everything's been done in this rehabilitated home! New: Kitchen, bathroom, roof, furnace, plumbing, electrical, hot water heater, flooring etc. . The property was acquired or rehabilitated using grant funds. Maximum income restrictions apply: 1 person = $55,700. 2 person =$63,600. 3 person =$71,600. 4 person = $79,500. etc. .. Buyer will receive Bargain & Sale Deed with lien covenants. Taxes shown do not reflect any exemptions. Assessed value shown does not reflect "full market value".

7. 2019-09-12
   listed $79,900 Active 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Everything's been done in this rehabilitated home! New: Kitchen, bathroom, roof, furnace, plumbing, electrical, hot water heater, flooring etc. . The property was acquired or rehabilitated using grant funds. Maximum income restrictions apply: 1 person = $55,700. 2 person =$63,600. 3 person =$71,600. 4 person = $79,500. etc. .. Buyer will receive Bargain & Sale Deed with lien covenants. Taxes shown do not reflect any exemptions. Assessed value shown does not reflect "full market value".

8. 2013-04-24
   listed $59,900
9. 2005-11-23
   soldstatus $26,000
10. 2005-11-23
    soldstatus $32,900
11. 1999-11-09
    soldstatus $57,000
12. 1999-04-26
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$3,087
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$4,566
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,419
• Composite: 41.34/100
• National rank: #3500
• State rank: #416 of 590 in NY

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,229

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.32%
• Current HPI: 313.5591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+622.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-28 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-12-26 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (MLS) $86,000 CNYIS
• 2019-10-30 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-09-18 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2019-09-12 Listed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2013-04-24 Listed $59,900 CNYIS
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $32,900 Public Records
• 2005-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,087 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.