10306 SE 161st Lane Rd · Summerfield, FL 34491

$245,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 207 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $173/sqft · 17% below area Est $295k · 17% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the quiet neighborhood of Sunset Hills. Built in 2024, this well-maintained residence offers modern comfort and peace of mind with newer construction throughout. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located while still offering a sense of privacy, this move-in-ready home is smoke-free and pet-free, reflecting its clean and well-cared-for condition. This is a great opportunity to own a nearly new home in a desirable community. This property is also in a USDA eligible area.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-376/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Summerfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 950 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,150 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,141
• List price: $245,900
• Delta: -16.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10116 SE 158th Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-6%)	1mo	$270,655	$204	74
10101 SE 158th Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-6%)	3mo	$245,000	$184	72
10108 SE 158th Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	2mo	$275,570	$184	70
15937 SE 101st Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-6%)	4mo	$261,490	$197	70
10141 SE 158th Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	1mo	$272,990	$182	68
15964 SE 101st Cir	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	3mo	$279,570	$187	68
10125 SE 158th Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	2mo	$280,990	$188	68
10117 SE 158th Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	3mo	$283,070	$189	67
15931 SE 101st Cir	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	4mo	$265,000	$177	66
15946 SE 101st Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+6%)	5mo	$275,000	$184	63
15864 SE 98th Ter	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+9%)	5mo	$294,550	$190	55
9793 SE 167th Pl	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-7%)	5mo	$175,000	$132	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,803
• Equity at exit: $36,664

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,804
• Equity at exit: $21,261

Cash invested: $68,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,495 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 950
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,171

Max offer price $240,358

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $38	+0% $-31	+5% $-101	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-116	+0% $-31	+5% $53	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $92	-0.5pp $31	base $-31	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,475
• Closing costs: $7,377
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	109d	1	0.08mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,199	$1.55	6d	1	0.08mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	117d	1	0.50mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	109d	1	0.57mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	117d	1	0.66mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	6d	1	0.68mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	117d	1	0.68mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	117d	2	0.69mi
9701 SE 171st Argyll St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$2,050	$1.79	6d	1	1.01mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	117d	1	1.08mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,700	$1.21	6d	1	1.15mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	117d	1	1.17mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	117d	1	1.22mi
15710 SE 92nd Ave Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,695	$1.38	6d	1	1.23mi
17343 SE 98th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,700	$1.48	6d	1	1.24mi
10048 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,445	$1.18	5d	1	1.38mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	117d	1	1.43mi
15023 SE 93rd Ct Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$1,699	$1.08	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-17
   days on market $245,900 Active 207 DOM
2. 2026-09-16
   days on market $245,900 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-09-15
   days on market $245,900 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-09-14
   days on market $245,900 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-09-13
   days on market $245,900 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-09-12
   days on market $245,900 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-09-11
   days on market $245,900 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-09-05
   days on market $245,900 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-09-04
   days on market $245,900 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-09-03
    days on market $245,900 Active 193 DOM
11. 2026-08-31
    days on market $245,900 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-08-30
    days on market $245,900 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,900 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-08-28
    days on market $245,900 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-08-27
    days on market $245,900 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-08-25
    days on market $245,900 Active 184 DOM
17. 2026-08-24
    days on market $245,900 Active 183 DOM
18. 2026-08-23
    days on market $245,900 Active 182 DOM
19. 2026-08-22
    days on market $245,900 Active 181 DOM
20. 2026-08-20
    days on market $245,900 Active 179 DOM
21. 2026-08-19
    days on market $245,900 Active 178 DOM
22. 2026-08-18
    days on market $245,900 Active 177 DOM
23. 2026-08-17
    days on market $245,900 Active 176 DOM
24. 2026-08-16
    days on market $245,900 Active 175 DOM
25. 2026-08-15
    days on market $245,900 Active 174 DOM
26. 2026-08-14
    days on market $245,900 Active 173 DOM
27. 2026-08-13
    days on market $245,900 Active 172 DOM
28. 2026-08-12
    days on market $245,900 Active 171 DOM
29. 2026-08-11
    days on market $245,900 Active 170 DOM
30. 2026-08-10
    days on market $245,900 Active 169 DOM
31. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $245,900 Active 168 DOM
32. 2026-08-08
    days on market $252,900 Active 167 DOM
33. 2026-08-07
    days on market $252,900 Active 166 DOM
34. 2026-08-06
    days on market $252,900 Active 165 DOM
35. 2026-08-05
    days on market $252,900 Active 164 DOM
36. 2026-08-04
    days on market $252,900 Active 163 DOM
37. 2026-08-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 162 DOM
38. 2026-07-31
    days on market $252,900 Active 159 DOM
39. 2026-07-30
    days on market $252,900 Active 158 DOM
40. 2026-07-29
    days on market $252,900 Active 157 DOM
41. 2026-07-27
    days on market $252,900 Active 155 DOM
42. 2026-07-25
    days on market $252,900 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-07-23
    days on market $252,900 Active 151 DOM
44. 2026-07-22
    days on market $252,900 Active 150 DOM
45. 2026-07-21
    days on market $252,900 Active 149 DOM
46. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,900 Active 146 DOM
47. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,900 Active 144 DOM
48. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,900 Active 143 DOM
49. 2026-07-14
    days on market $252,900 Active 142 DOM
50. 2026-07-13
    days on market $252,900 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,774
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$7,153
• Taxable loss: −$4,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Sunset Hills offers modern comfort and is move-in ready, with good condition and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harbour View Elementary School F FL #1,513/2,144 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lake Weir Middle School F FL #416/571 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Lake Weir High School F FL #458/667 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Summerfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 365,905 people
• City population: 33,318
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $257,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $257,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $265,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+128.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,351 · +254.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.