CashFlowRE
Sign in Sign up
10306 SE 161st Lane Rd
D Composite 42.58
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.2/30.0
  • Schools +4.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.9/10.0
  • DSCR +2.6/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$243,900

10306 SE 161st Lane Rd · Summerfield, FL 34491
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market
Built 2024 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot 2-car garage $172/sqft · 17% below area Est $295k · 17% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. Welcome home! Move right into this pristine, 2024-built home featuring modern touches that include quartz countertops, contemporary recessed lighting, and smart-home features managed through Safe Haven Security. The system includes a smart panel on the wall, doorbell camera, remote interior lighting, remote garage access, and voice control through Alexa. This gently lived in home is also free of harsh chemicals, pets and smoke. The backyard is partially fenced and can be completely enclosed if desired. Inside, the thoughtfully designed open-concept layout creates a welcoming space that is perfect for entertaining and enjoying time with family and friends.

Key facts

  • Quartz countertops
  • Smart-home features
  • Doorbell camera

Tags

QUARTZ COUNTERTOPSCONTEMPORARY RECESSED LIGHTINGSMART-HOME FEATURESSMART PANELDOORBELL CAMERAREMOTE INTERIOR LIGHTING

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $244k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (13.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (21.2% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $192k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.5% in Summerfield — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Belleview Elementary School (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 650 students, 73% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Belleview High School (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,783 students, 56% FRL).
  • Market conditions: 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $192,305 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.79% ✗
Cap rate
5.38%
Cash-on-cash
-3.25%
DSCR
0.86
GRM
10.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$295,383
List price
$243,900
Delta
-17.43%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10136 SE 158th Ln 0.32mi 3/2.0 1,328 (-6%) 0mo $249,990 $188 74
10116 SE 158th Ln 0.31mi 3/2.0 1,328 (-6%) 3mo $270,655 $204 73
10133 SE 158th Ln 0.35mi 3/2.0 1,328 (-6%) 1mo $240,990 $181 72
15952 SE 101st Cir 0.35mi 3/2.0 1,328 (-6%) 1mo $265,000 $200 72
10101 SE 158th Ln 0.32mi 3/2.0 1,328 (-6%) 4mo $245,000 $184 71
10108 SE 158th Ln 0.30mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,498 (+6%) 4mo $275,570 $184 69
10141 SE 158th Ln 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,498 (+6%) 2mo $272,990 $182 67
15964 SE 101st Cir 0.33mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,498 (+6%) 4mo $279,570 $187 67
10125 SE 158th Ln 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,498 (+6%) 4mo $280,990 $188 67
10117 SE 158th Ln 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,498 (+6%) 4mo $283,070 $189 66
15931 SE 101st Cir 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,498 (+6%) 5mo $265,000 $177 65
9818 SE 161st Lane Rd 0.52mi 3/2.0 1,328 (-6%) 1mo $245,000 $184 64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-21.7%
Equity multiple
0.25×
Total profit
$-51,247
Equity at exit
$36,366
10-year hold
IRR
-15.4%
Equity multiple
0.13×
Total profit
$-59,611
Equity at exit
$21,088

Cash invested: $68,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
23 active · 29 under contract
Months of supply
6.9 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$281,990 ($197/sqft)
Median days on market
164 d
This list price
4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34491

Home prices YoY
-35.0%
Active inventory
1056
Price-to-rent
10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,923 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,279
Tax from tax record
−$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
Insurance
−$102
HOA
−$44
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$404
Net cashflow
$-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157
Max offer price $211,267
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-47 -5% $-116 +0% $-185 +5% $-254 +10% $-323
Rent -10% $-337 -5% $-261 +0% $-185 +5% $-109 +10% $-33
Rate -1.0pp $-62 -0.5pp $-123 base $-185 +0.5pp $-248 +1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$60,975
Closing costs
$7,317
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 27 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
10324 SE 161st St Summerfield, FL 4.0 2.0 1827 $1,800 $0.99 10d 1 0.02mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1419 $1,600 $1.13 10d 1 0.08mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1419 $1,600 $1.13 17d 1 0.08mi
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1419 $2,300 $1.62 154d 1 0.08mi
16220 SE 104th Ter Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1776 $1,749 $0.98 2d 1 0.14mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL 4.0 2.0 1827 $2,200 $1.20 162d 1 0.50mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 962 $1,395 $1.45 154d 1 0.57mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL 2.0 2.5 1224 $1,440 $1.18 162d 1 0.66mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A8 Summerfield, FL 2.0 1.5 1200 $1,500 $1.25 2d 1 0.67mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL 2.0 2.0 1200 $2,000 $1.67 51d 1 0.68mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL 2.0 1.5–2.0 1244 $1,770 $1.42 162d 2 0.69mi
9679 SE 157th Ln Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1439 $2,000 $1.39 6d 1 0.76mi
9701 SE 171st Argyll St The Villages, FL 2.0 2.0 1148 $2,050 $1.79 51d 1 1.01mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL 3.0 2.0 1265 $1,975 $1.56 162d 1 1.08mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1410 $1,700 $1.21 26d 1 1.15mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1410 $1,575 $1.12 15d 1 1.15mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1410 $1,575 $1.12 10d 1 1.15mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1404 $1,990 $1.42 10d 1 1.17mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL 2.0 2.0 1160 $2,000 $1.72 162d 1 1.22mi
15710 SE 92nd Ave Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1232 $1,495 $1.21 10d 1 1.23mi
15710 SE 92nd Ave Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1232 $1,495 $1.21 14d 1 1.23mi
17343 SE 98th Cir Summerfield, FL 2.0 2.0 1148 $1,700 $1.48 10d 1 1.24mi
16062 SE 89th Ter Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1521 $1,995 $1.31 9d 1 1.38mi
10048 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL 3.0 1.5 1224 $1,420 $1.16 10d 1 1.38mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL 2.0 2.0 1217 $1,800 $1.48 162d 1 1.43mi
16430 SE 89th Ct Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1393 $2,200 $1.58 6d 1 1.45mi
15023 SE 93rd Ct Summerfield, FL 3.0 2.0 1577 $1,699 $1.08 10d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Property type: Residential, single-family (PUD)Property condition: CompletedLot approximately 0.15 acres (60 x 110)
Financial info
Total annual fees approximately $530.40
HOA & community
HOA (Ayla Hart) with monthly fee of $44.20HOA fee covers management and recreational facilitiesCommunity amenities include basketball court, pickleball courts, playground, and dog parkPets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

Parking
DrivewayAttached 2-car garage
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedBroadband/high-speed internet availableCable availableSewer and water available/connected
Home design
Single-family residenceOne storyNorth-facing
Construction
Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt by DR. Horton (model: Dakota)
Exterior features
Private mailboxRain guttersSidewalkCleared lotIrrigation equipment

Interior

Kitchen
Built-in ovenCooktopMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalIce makerRefrigeratorStone countertops
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
High ceilingsOpen floorplan with kitchen/family room combo and living/dining room comboFormal dining areaSplit-bedroom layoutStone countersThermostatWalk-in closet(s)Double pane ENERGY STAR qualified windows
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer includedLaundry room insideElectric water heater

HOA detail $44/mo · $528/yr

Likely covers
security

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $243,900 Active 43 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $243,900 Active 42 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $243,900 Active 41 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $243,900 Active 40 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $243,900 Active 39 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $243,900 Active 37 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $243,900 Active 36 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $243,900 Active 35 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $243,900 Active 34 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $243,900 Active 33 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $243,900 Active 32 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $243,900 Active 31 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $243,900 Active 30 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $243,900 Active 29 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $243,900 Active 28 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $243,900 Active 27 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $243,900 Active 26 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $243,900 Active 25 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $243,900 Active 24 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $243,900 Active 23 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $243,900 Active 22 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $243,900 Active 21 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $243,900 Active 20 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $243,900 Active 19 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $243,900 Active 18 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $243,900 Active 17 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $243,900 Active 16 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $243,900 Active 15 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $243,900 Active 14 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $243,900 Active 13 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $243,900 Active 12 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $243,900 Active 11 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $243,900 Active 10 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $243,900 Active 9 DOM
  35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $243,900 Active 8 DOM
  36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $243,900 Active 7 DOM
  37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $243,900 Active 6 DOM
  38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $243,900 Active 5 DOM
  39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $243,900 Active 4 DOM
  40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $243,900 Active 3 DOM
  41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $243,900 Active 2 DOM
  42. 2026-09-27
    remarks 699-char remark
  43. 2026-09-27
    pricedays on marketlisting id $243,900 Active 1 DOM
  44. 2026-09-17
    days on market $245,900 Active 207 DOM
  45. 2026-09-16
    days on market $245,900 Active 206 DOM
  46. 2026-09-15
    days on market $245,900 Active 205 DOM
  47. 2026-09-14
    days on market $245,900 Active 204 DOM
  48. 2026-09-13
    days on market $245,900 Active 203 DOM
  49. 2026-09-12
    days on market $245,900 Active 202 DOM
  50. 2026-09-11
    days on market $245,900 Active 201 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$3,351 · $279/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$3,351 · $279/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$23,077
− Mortgage interest
−$13,662
− Property taxes
−$3,351
− Insurance
−$1,220
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,846
− Management
−$1,846
− HOA
−$528
− Depreciation
−$7,095
Taxable loss
−$6,472
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,553
After-tax cash flow
$-663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Sunset Hills offers modern comfort and is move-in ready, with good condition and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
  • Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
  • Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑
F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Belleview Elementary School D- FL #1,234/2,144 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 Middle Lake Weir Middle School F FL #416/571 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Belleview High School F FL #321/667 Nat'l #8,796/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Marion
NCES district ID
1201260
Math proficiency
42% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$40,015
Composite
35.61/100
National rank
#4890
State rank
#61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Summerfield

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County
Marion County · 365,905 people
City population
33,318
Metro
Ocala, FL
Population (ZIP)
33,318
Household income
$66,679
Rent vs Own
13.2% rent · 86.8% own
Severe rent burden
8% of renters

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
365,905 people
By 2030
376,768 · +3.0%
By 2040
396,555 · +8.4%
By 2050
412,723 · +12.8%
By 2075
446,090 · +21.9%
By 2100
436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (77%)
Race & ethnicity
White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
Languages at home
85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

2024 margin
Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
2008→2024 swing
-20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
All cycles
2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-09-26 Listed $243,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+128.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,351 · +254.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…