10306 SE 161st Lane Rd · The Villages, FL 34491

$252,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $178/sqft · at area comps Est $255k · at est. $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the quiet neighborhood of Sunset Hills. Built in 2024, this well-maintained residence offers modern comfort and peace of mind with newer construction throughout. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located while still offering a sense of privacy, this move-in-ready home is smoke-free and pet-free, reflecting its clean and well-cared-for condition. This is a great opportunity to own a nearly new home in a desirable community. This property is also in a USDA eligible area.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-875/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harbour View Elementary School (math 41% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 713 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,909 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,766
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15883 SE 98th Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+1%)	7mo	$245,000	$171	69
15828 SE 98th Ter	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-5%)	12mo	$287,000	$213	56
9800 SE 167th Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-9%)	14mo	$184,900	$143	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,587
• Equity at exit: $37,708

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,527
• Equity at exit: $21,866

Cash invested: $70,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 713
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,326
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,351/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $240,021

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-1	+0% $-73	+5% $-144	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-157	+0% $-73	+5% $11	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-9	base $-73	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,225
• Closing costs: $7,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10326 SE 162nd Place Rd Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,300	$1.62	15d	1	0.08mi
9871 SE 161st Lane Rd Unit 0 Summerfield, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,200	$1.20	22d	1	0.50mi
9990 SE 166th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	962	$1,395	$1.45	15d	1	0.57mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit H52 Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,440	$1.18	22d	1	0.66mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Unit A08 Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.68mi
11001 SE Sunset Harbor Rd Summerfield, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1244	$1,770	$1.42	22d	2	0.69mi
9523 SE 168th Maplesong Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,975	$1.56	22d	1	1.08mi
9195 SE 163rd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	22d	1	1.15mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	1.17mi
16962 SE 94th Sunnybrook Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1160	$2,000	$1.72	22d	1	1.22mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $252,900 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $252,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $252,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $252,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $252,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $257,500 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $257,500 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the quiet neighborhood of Sunset Hills. Built in 2024, this well-maintained residence offers modern comfort and peace of mind with newer construction throughout. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located while still offering a sense of privacy, this move-in-ready home is smoke-free and pet-free, reflecting its clean and well-cared-for condition. This is a great opportunity to own a nearly new home in a desirable community. This property is also in a USDA eligible area.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $257,900 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the quiet neighborhood of Sunset Hills. Built in 2024, this well-maintained residence offers modern comfort and peace of mind with newer construction throughout. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located while still offering a sense of privacy, this move-in-ready home is smoke-free and pet-free, reflecting its clean and well-cared-for condition. This is a great opportunity to own a nearly new home in a desirable community. This property is also in a USDA eligible area.

19. 2026-02-22
    listed $265,900 Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in the quiet neighborhood of Sunset Hills. Built in 2024, this well-maintained residence offers modern comfort and peace of mind with newer construction throughout. The functional layout provides comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located while still offering a sense of privacy, this move-in-ready home is smoke-free and pet-free, reflecting its clean and well-cared-for condition. This is a great opportunity to own a nearly new home in a desirable community. This property is also in a USDA eligible area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,351 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,166
• − Property taxes: −$3,351
• − Insurance: −$1,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$7,357
• Taxable loss: −$5,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This nearly new home in Sunset Hills offers modern comfort and is move-in ready, with good condition and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $257,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $257,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $265,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+128.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,351 · +254.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.