608 Lake Rd · Pine Plains, NY 12567

$850,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1955 4.90 ac lot Est $602k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm and possibilities of this private lakefront property set on 5.9 picturesque acres. This updated 1950's cottage features three plus bedrooms and two baths, with a bright, inviting interior that immediately feels like home. As soon as you step inside, you're welcomed by a direct view of Twin Island Lake, creating a stunning first impression. Relax on the decks and take in the beauty of the changing seasons and sunsets over the water or spend time kayaking around the lake. Beyond the property itself, outdoor recreation is right nearby with convenient walking access to Stissing Lake, the Thompson Pond Conservation Area, and hiking trails on Stissing Mountain. Added amenities

Key facts

• Lakefront property
• Private lakefront
• A/c

Tags

• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• PRIVATE LAKEFRONT
• UPDATED COTTAGE
• A/C
• GENERATOR
• PELLET STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking
• Security: Video cameras
• Utilities: Electricity connected (Central Hudson); Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Waterfront property with views; Cleared lot; Front yard; Private setting; Shed(s); Generator; Video security cameras

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Heat pump; Electric cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Bidet; Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Primary bathroom; Covered patio/porch; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in kitchen; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $850k).
• Recommended offer: $837k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#746 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seymour Smith Intermediate Learning Center (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #1,057 of 2,108 statewide, top 51%, 201 students, 40% FRL); Stissing Mountain Junior/Senior High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 460 students, 36% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pine Plains Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($837k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $388k; list at $850k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $837,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.33%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $602,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Ryan Rd	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,580 (-4%)	5mo	$575,000	$223	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $694,652
• Equity at exit: $765,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $1,863,865
• Equity at exit: $1,651,363

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12567

• Home prices YoY: 18.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$1,033 /mo · $12,392/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,520
• Net cashflow: $3,636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,398

Max offer price $850,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
231 Lake Rd Pine Plains, NY	4.0	4.0	3029	$12,000	$3.96	23d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $850,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $850,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $850,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $850,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $850,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $850,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $850,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $850,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $850,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $850,000 Active
17. 2024-02-03
    historical
18. 2019-05-02
    listed $699,000
19. 2018-04-06
    soldstatus $388,500
20. 1985-06-12
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,392 · $1,033/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,379 · $1,115/mo
• Expected delta: +$986/yr (+$82/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $144,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$12,392
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,520
• − Management: −$11,520
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable income: $31,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,675
• After-tax cash flow: $35,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Plains Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623040
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,189
• Composite: 48.33/100
• National rank: #4688
• State rank: #372 of 755 in NY

Livability — Pine Plains

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #14240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Plains, NY
• City population: 2,498
• Population (ZIP): 2,498

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.77%
• Current HPI: 322.2342
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1033.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-02 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $388,500 Public Records
• 1985-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,392 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.