23825 15th Ave SE #159 · Bothell, WA 98021

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · Manufactured public records · 273 Days on market

Built 2004 $273/sqft · 20% below area Est $376k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the ultimate 55+ lifestyle in this charming home! Nestled within a vibrant community, this property offers an abundance of amenities designed for active and social residents. This Home offers 1,096 SQ FT, large kitchen, 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Mini split offers air conditioning. New flooring & freshly painted inside. The "backyard" gives you a private feeling w/ treks decking, awning and a a shed w/ power. Enjoy leisurely strolls on the scenic walking trails, let your furry friend play freely at the dedicated dog park, and engage in a variety of events and gatherings at the bustling clubhouse. Experience comfort, convenience, and a welcoming atmosphere in a plac

Key facts

• Dedicated dog park
• Mini split
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• MINI SPLIT
• DEDICATED DOG PARK
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 1.5% in Bothell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in WA, #962 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Northshore School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 291 in WA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $299k implies a 172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.74%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,900
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -20.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23825 15th Ave SE #311	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (+3%)	0mo	$287,500	$254	89
23825 15th Ave SE #28	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,095 (-0%)	11mo	$300,000	$274	86
23825 15th Ave SE #180	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,118 (+2%)	11mo	$285,000	$255	82
23825 15th Ave SE #312	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+5%)	13mo	$300,000	$260	81
23825 15th Ave SE #62	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,012 (-8%)	8mo	$310,000	$306	75
23825 15th Ave SE #413	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	16mo	$375,000	$355	75
23825 15th Ave SE #93	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-12%)	0mo	$255,000	$266	74
23825 15th Ave SE #339	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+8%)	23mo	$388,000	$327	67
23825 15th Ave SE #133	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (+14%)	9mo	$390,000	$314	65
1725 242nd St SE #219	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	14mo	$272,500	$258	64
1725 242nd St SE #222	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (+14%)	9mo	$375,000	$301	52
1725 242nd St SE #221	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,244 (+14%)	13mo	$400,000	$322	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-17,887
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $13,347
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98021

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,850/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,338

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $709	-5% $625	+0% $540	+5% $456	+10% $371
Rent	-10% $302	-5% $421	+0% $540	+5% $660	+10% $779
Rate	-1.0pp $691	-0.5pp $616	base $540	+0.5pp $463	+1.0pp $384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1630 228th St SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$3,057	$3.25	2d	11	0.54mi
23028 27th Ave SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$3,348	$3.80	2d	16	0.72mi
2207 227th St SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	846	$2,767	$3.27	2d	8	0.78mi
22717 4th Ave SE Unit B Bothell, WA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,500	$2.91	24d	1	0.99mi
9616 NE 188th St #302 Bothell, WA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,195	$2.31	4d	1	1.20mi
10295 NE 189th St Bothell, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$2,150	$2.24	12d	2	1.24mi
10315 NE 187th St Bothell, WA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,150	$2.39	44d	1	1.32mi
19128 112th Ave NE Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$3,165	$3.07	3d	19	1.33mi
21623 16th Dr SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,295	$3.33	2d	11	1.35mi
10324 NE 186th St Unit 1 Bothell, WA	2.0	1.5	1108	$2,300	$2.08	44d	1	1.35mi
9924 NE 185th St Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1194	$3,940	$3.30	2d	7	1.38mi
9226 NE 184th Pl Bothell, WA	3.0	1.5	1250	$3,900	$3.12	5d	1	1.43mi
18420 102nd Ave NE Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$3,001	$3.75	2d	10	1.44mi
18307 98th Ave NE Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$2,760	$3.59	2d	4	1.45mi
18305 96th Ave NE Bothell, WA	2.0	1.0	670	$2,300	$3.43	15d	2	1.46mi
24107 7th Ave W Bothell, WA	3.0	1.0	975	$2,795	$2.87	5d	1	1.46mi
18414 104th Ave NE Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,999	$3.13	5d	6	1.46mi
23940 40th Dr SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1151	$3,637	$3.16	2d	12	1.47mi
10730 Beardslee Blvd Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	793	$2,195	$2.77	44d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 268 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $299,000
16. 2025-11-25
    price $319,000
17. 2025-09-18
    listed $329,000 Active
18. 2004-06-21
    soldstatus $110,000
19. 2004-04-11
    listed $110,000
20. 2003-07-01
    soldstatus $23,500
21. 2003-06-16
    listed $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,850 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,080/yr (+$90/mo · 58.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,850
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,901
• − Management: −$2,901
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $1,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$400
• After-tax cash flow: $6,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northshore School District
• NCES district ID: 5305910
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $92,951
• Composite: 67.41/100
• National rank: #826
• State rank: #9 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bothell

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #962

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bothell, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 141,635
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,631
• Household income: $183,786
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 413.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Asian 29% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Chinese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -903.22%
• Current HPI: 380.5475
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+949.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $299,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $319,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listed $329,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-21 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-11 Listed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-01 Sold (MLS) $23,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-16 Listed $28,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,850 · +29.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.