2891 Montauk Hwy · Brookhaven, NY 11719

$449,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,317 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1810 2.25 ac lot $194/sqft · 41% below area Est $756k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Colonial-style home. This home features four bedrooms, three full baths, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen. Centrally located to all. Don't miss this opportunity! The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

Key facts

• 2.25 acre lot
• Built 1810
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $409k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#681 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• South Country Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #460 of 755 in NY (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1810 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $409,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1810 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.65%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $756,494
• List price: $449,900
• Delta: -40.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2809 Montauk Hwy	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,111 (-9%)	2mo	$750,000	$355	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,972
• Equity at exit: $67,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $77,818
• Equity at exit: $38,899

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11719

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$1,092 /mo · $13,104/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,237
• Net cashflow: $1,013

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,606

Max offer price $449,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	3d	1	0.73mi
42 Revilo Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2670	$5,000	$1.87	24d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,900 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $449,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $449,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Colonial-style home. This home features four bedrooms, three full baths, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen. Centrally located to all. Don't miss this opportunity! The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

16. 2026-04-21
    price $485,088 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Colonial-style home. This home features four bedrooms, three full baths, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen. Centrally located to all. Don't miss this opportunity! The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $489,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Colonial-style home. This home features four bedrooms, three full baths, a formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen. Centrally located to all. Don't miss this opportunity! The information provided is estimated to the best of our abilities at this time.

18. 2019-03-22
    soldstatus $1,007,815
19. 2014-05-19
    historical
20. 2013-07-20
    listed $169,990
21. 2005-05-16
    soldstatus $585,000
22. 2003-06-13
    soldstatus $86,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,104 · $1,092/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,104 · $1,092/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$13,104
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,653
• − Management: −$5,653
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable income: $5,711
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,371
• After-tax cash flow: $10,785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600008
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $74,049
• Composite: 44.75/100
• National rank: #5960
• State rank: #460 of 755 in NY

Livability — Brookhaven

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #681
• US rank: #12842

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brookhaven, NY
• City population: 3,300
• Population (ZIP): 3,300

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.51%
• Current HPI: 360.1291
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+420.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $449,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $485,088 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $489,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,007,815 Public Records
• 2014-05-19 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-20 Listed $169,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $585,000 Public Records
• 2003-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,104 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.