164 Kinneytown Rd · Goochland, VA 23117

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1977 5.00 ac lot Est $294k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! A renovated rancher on 5 acres with great privacy! This beautiful home has 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths with wood floors throughout. The kitchen has new cabainets, modern appliances, and plenty of storage space as well as designer porcelain tile flooring throughout. There is also a cute dining area that is open to the living room and kitchen area. A newer TRANE HVAC system awaits the new owner as well as new vinyl windows throughtout the home. Both the master and hall bathrooms have been renovated with new vanities, tile floors, and tile shower surrounds. There is a beautiful rear deck that allows you to look out over the expansive landscape which leads to trails and a spring at the rear of the property. One of the greatest attributes of this home is that although it's close to everything (17 mins to Short Pump, 28 mins to Charlottesville, etc), you can enjoy the quiet life of country living. Come on out and see what you have been looking for!

Key facts

• Black appliances
• Newer cabinets
• Laminate floors

Tags

• GALLEY KITCHEN
• NEWER CABINETS
• BLACK APPLIANCES
• LAMINATE FLOORS
• 5 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned A2; Approximately 5 acres of land; About 1,152 above-grade finished square footage

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking (unpaved)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Block, clapboard and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built (actual year recorded)
• Exterior features: Unpaved driveway; Off-street unpaved parking

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary and additional bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; One bath includes tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-268/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.6% in Goochland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#160 in VA, #4,994 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Louisa County Public School District (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #19 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Jouett Elementary (math 71% / reading 74%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 621 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County Middle (math 59% / reading 76%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 1,152 students, 64% FRL); Louisa County High (math 86% / reading 92%, grade A+, #10 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 1,653 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 408 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Louisa County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $300k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,137 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,760
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
393 Kinneytown Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	14mo	$275,000	$255	60
104 Marsh Hawk Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	11mo	$285,000	$247	59
5440 New Line Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,118 (-3%)	19mo	$310,000	$277	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-50,156
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,990
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23117

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,281 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,517/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,310

Max offer price $296,048

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $63	+0% $-22	+5% $-107	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-112	+0% $-22	+5% $68	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $54	base $-22	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-05-27
   status Active
8. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-09
   listed $300,000 Active
10. 2025-10-30
    status Pending
11. 2025-10-29
    historical
12. 2025-10-15
    listed $300,000 Active
13. 2018-09-07
    soldstatus $164,950 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Wow! A renovated rancher on 5 acres with great privacy! This beautiful home has 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths with wood floors throughout. The kitchen has new cabainets, modern appliances, and plenty of storage space as well as designer porcelain tile flooring throughout. There is also a cute dining area that is open to the living room and kitchen area. A newer TRANE HVAC system awaits the new owner as well as new vinyl windows throughtout the home. Both the master and hall bathrooms have been renovated with new vanities, tile floors, and tile shower surrounds. There is a beautiful rear deck that allows you to look out over the expansive landscape which leads to trails and a spring at the rear of the property. One of the greatest attributes of this home is that although it's close to everything (17 mins to Short Pump, 28 mins to Charlottesville, etc), you can enjoy the quiet life of country living. Come on out and see what you have been looking for!

14. 2018-05-25
    listed $164,950 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Wow! A renovated rancher on 5 acres with great privacy! This beautiful home has 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths with wood floors throughout. The kitchen has new cabainets, modern appliances, and plenty of storage space as well as designer porcelain tile flooring throughout. There is also a cute dining area that is open to the living room and kitchen area. A newer TRANE HVAC system awaits the new owner as well as new vinyl windows throughtout the home. Both the master and hall bathrooms have been renovated with new vanities, tile floors, and tile shower surrounds. There is a beautiful rear deck that allows you to look out over the expansive landscape which leads to trails and a spring at the rear of the property. One of the greatest attributes of this home is that although it's close to everything (17 mins to Short Pump, 28 mins to Charlottesville, etc), you can enjoy the quiet life of country living. Come on out and see what you have been looking for!

15. 2012-09-26
    soldstatus $25,499
16. 2012-07-10
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,517 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$943/yr (+$79/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,517
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,190
• − Management: −$2,190
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $1,064/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Louisa County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,036
• Composite: 60.21/100
• National rank: #862
• State rank: #19 of 131 in VA

Livability — Goochland

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,772

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,941 people
• By 2030: 37,752 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 38,605 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 38,480 · +4.2%
• By 2075: 38,011 · +2.9%
• By 2100: 34,748 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 16% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.2) · D 36.5% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.8pp · 2024: -26.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.2 2020: R+22.9 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+13.8 2008: R+7.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.27%
• Current HPI: 335.147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+614.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-15 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $300,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $300,000 CVRMLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $164,950 CVRMLS
• 2018-05-25 Listed $164,950 CVRMLS
• 2012-09-26 Sold (MLS) $25,499 CVRMLS
• 2012-07-10 Listed $42,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,517 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.