437 Little Gap Rd · Lower Towamensing, PA 18071

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1944 5,225 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Updated Half Double with Garage and off Street Parking! Step inside and you will find a well maintained half double with modern updates and original character. Main floor offers an updated kitchen with all appliances included, large open concept dining and living room areas in addition to a beautiful bright sunroom. Lots of original wood details throughout the main floor. 2nd floor offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and a full bathroom. Full attic offers much potential for additional living space, office or playroom. Lower level attached one car garage with additional storage and workspace is a bonus. Plenty of off-street parking in both the front and rear of the home. Outdoors offer a nice sized back yard with plenty of room for gardening and outdoor activities. Fisherman. .. the Lehigh River just beyond your backyard offering a peaceful setting with year round outdoor adventure at your fingertips! Located near all major travel routes and Historical Jim Thorpe, Ski Resorts, White Water Rafting and much more! Call for your private showing today!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1944
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Palmerton Area SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #234 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $190k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,051 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.09%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $41,542
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $129,526
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18071

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,784/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $1,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 59%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,138
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,036
Total (3 units)			$3,174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
637 Lehigh Ave Palmerton, PA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,695	$1.86	43d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 1066-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1066 chars)

   Charming Updated Half Double with Garage and off Street Parking! Step inside and you will find a well maintained half double with modern updates and original character. Main floor offers an updated kitchen with all appliances included, large open concept dining and living room areas in addition to a beautiful bright sunroom. Lots of original wood details throughout the main floor. 2nd floor offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and a full bathroom. Full attic offers much potential for additional living space, office or playroom. Lower level attached one car garage with additional storage and workspace is a bonus. Plenty of off-street parking in both the front and rear of the home. Outdoors offer a nice sized back yard with plenty of room for gardening and outdoor activities. Fisherman. .. the Lehigh River just beyond your backyard offering a peaceful setting with year round outdoor adventure at your fingertips! Located near all major travel routes and Historical Jim Thorpe, Ski Resorts, White Water Rafting and much more! Call for your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $189,900 Active 1066-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1066 chars)

   Charming Updated Half Double with Garage and off Street Parking! Step inside and you will find a well maintained half double with modern updates and original character. Main floor offers an updated kitchen with all appliances included, large open concept dining and living room areas in addition to a beautiful bright sunroom. Lots of original wood details throughout the main floor. 2nd floor offers 3 nice sized bedrooms and a full bathroom. Full attic offers much potential for additional living space, office or playroom. Lower level attached one car garage with additional storage and workspace is a bonus. Plenty of off-street parking in both the front and rear of the home. Outdoors offer a nice sized back yard with plenty of room for gardening and outdoor activities. Fisherman. .. the Lehigh River just beyond your backyard offering a peaceful setting with year round outdoor adventure at your fingertips! Located near all major travel routes and Historical Jim Thorpe, Ski Resorts, White Water Rafting and much more! Call for your private showing today!

3. 2011-05-20
   soldstatus $63,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,784 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,892 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,784
• − Insurance: −$1,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,047
• − Management: −$3,047
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $11,302
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,712
• After-tax cash flow: $10,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmerton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4218360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,180
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #3758
• State rank: #234 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lower Towamensing

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,047

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,643 people
• By 2030: 59,840 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 55,413 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 50,843 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 43,326 · -29.7%
• By 2100: 37,126 · -39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 7% Iranian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.8) · D 32.2% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -34.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+6.9 2008: D+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.32%
• Current HPI: 179.6388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+197.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $189,900 GLVRMLS
• 2011-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $63,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,784 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.