215 Valley St · Providence, RI 02909

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1930 3,920 sqft lot Est $419k · 47% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEING SOLD IN "AS IS" CONDITION. SUBJECT TO LENDER APPROVAL.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• 5 parking spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $213k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.1% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,634/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 2000% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.32%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $418,802
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Hillwood St	1.15mi	3/1.5	1,001 (-9%)	1mo	$281,000	$281	47
293 Webster Ave	1.20mi	3/1.0	1,188 (+8%)	3mo	$370,000	$311	46
51 Alto St	1.43mi	3/1.5	996 (-10%)	14mo	$232,000	$233	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,435
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $64,977
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02909

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,634 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,451/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $757	-5% $694	+0% $632	+5% $570	+10% $508
Rent	-10% $424	-5% $528	+0% $632	+5% $736	+10% $840
Rate	-1.0pp $743	-0.5pp $688	base $632	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
166 Valley St Providence, RI	2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$2,670	$3.64	3d	7	0.18mi
1035 Atwells Ave Unit 2 Providence, RI	4.0	2.0	1300	$2,950	$2.27	25d	1	0.64mi
29 Dunford St Unit 2 Providence, RI	3.0	2.0	1116	$2,400	$2.15	25d	1	0.86mi
38 Tyndall Ave Providence, RI	4.0	2.0	1500	$3,500	$2.33	21d	1	1.14mi
304 Webster Ave Cranston, RI	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	11d	1	1.24mi
348 Union Ave Unit 1 Providence, RI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	16d	1	1.24mi
50 Murray St Unit 19 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	1130	$2,750	$2.43	17d	1	1.37mi
50 Murray St Unit 20 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	1130	$2,750	$2.43	12d	1	1.37mi
50 Murray St Unit 19 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	1130	$2,750	$2.43	3d	1	1.37mi
50 Murray St Unit 9 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	886	$2,500	$2.82	3d	1	1.37mi
50 Murray St Unit 2 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	840	$2,350	$2.80	3d	1	1.38mi
50 Murray St Unit 21 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	1130	$2,750	$2.43	21d	1	1.38mi
50 Murray St Unit 10 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	860	$2,500	$2.91	20d	1	1.38mi
50 Murray St Unit 2 Providence, RI	2.0	1.5	860	$2,500	$2.91	45d	1	1.38mi
14 Eaton St Providence, RI	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,550	$1.89	5d	1	1.38mi
8 Anthony Ave Unit 1 Providence, RI	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,800	$2.00	16d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2022-06-27
   soldstatus $225,000
2. 2022-06-03
   status Pending
3. 2022-04-22
   listed $219,900 Active
4. 2018-12-19
   soldstatus $57,000
5. 2011-05-28
   soldstatus $38,450 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   BEING SOLD IN "AS IS" CONDITION. SUBJECT TO LENDER APPROVAL.

6. 2011-03-15
   historical 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   BEING SOLD IN "AS IS" CONDITION. SUBJECT TO LENDER APPROVAL.

7. 2011-03-10
   listed $49,900 70-char remark

   Show marketing remark (70 chars)

   BEING SOLD IN "AS IS" CONDITION. SUBJECT TO LENDER APPROVAL.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,451 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$2,451
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,529
• − Management: −$2,529
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $4,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,029
• After-tax cash flow: $6,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Providence
• NCES district ID: 4400900
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,197
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9803
• State rank: #34 of 39 in RI

Livability — Providence

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #794

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, RI
• County: Providence County · 548,917 people
• City population: 212,734
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 46,014
• Household income: $64,649
• Rent vs Own: 60.2% rent · 39.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2000.0

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 23% White 22% Black 12% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.78%
• Current HPI: 474.9956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

+350.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2022-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-03 Pending — RIS
• 2022-04-22 Listed $219,900 RIS
• 2018-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-28 Sold (MLS) $38,450 RIS
• 2011-03-15 Listing Removed — RIS
• 2011-03-10 Listed $49,900 RIS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,451 · -37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.