1222 Autumn Ln SW · Hartselle, AL 35640

$189,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2006 $160/sqft · 13% below area Est $242k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AMAZING Layout and value describes this adorable 2 bedroom 2 bath town home features a GREATROOM with beautiful crown moulding, expanded ceiling height, corner gas log fireplace, and bay window for wonderful natural light! The kitchen offers a beautiful tiled backsplash, pendant lighting, and a TON of CABINETS with extended counter top that offers extra bar seating, PLUS seperate PANTRY! The dining room is an extension of the open concept kitchen and offers ample space for almost any size dining! OVERSIZED laundry, Isolated Master bedroom and bath features a HUGE walk in closet and dual seating shower, covered patio with extra parking, attached single car garage and MORE! MUST SEE!

Key facts

• Aquatic center
• Bay window
• Covered patio

Tags

• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• BAY WINDOW
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• AUTUMNWOOD SUBDIVISION
• AQUATIC CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($10/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Hartselle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#32 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hartselle City (other): math 41% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #10 of 129 in AL (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $99k; list at $190k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,382 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,515
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -21.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1211 SW Autumn Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,351 (+13%)	0mo	$210,000	$155	75
1308 Autumn Ln SW	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,321 (+11%)	8mo	$205,000	$155	73
759 SW Pattillo St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+4%)	18mo	$220,000	$177	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,825
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-27,138
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35640

• Home prices YoY: -13.6%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $189,999

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
726 Larkwood Cir SW Hartselle, AL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,400	$1.11	43d	1	0.33mi
500 Crestline Dr SW Hartselle, AL	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,500	$1.06	13d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,999 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,999 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,999 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,999 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,999 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,999 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,999 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,999 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-16
    price $189,999 433-char remark
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $199,900 Active 433-char remark
15. 2016-06-17
    soldstatus $99,000 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    AMAZING Layout and value describes this adorable 2 bedroom 2 bath town home features a GREATROOM with beautiful crown moulding, expanded ceiling height, corner gas log fireplace, and bay window for wonderful natural light! The kitchen offers a beautiful tiled backsplash, pendant lighting, and a TON of CABINETS with extended counter top that offers extra bar seating, PLUS seperate PANTRY! The dining room is an extension of the open concept kitchen and offers ample space for almost any size dining! OVERSIZED laundry, Isolated Master bedroom and bath features a HUGE walk in closet and dual seating shower, covered patio with extra parking, attached single car garage and MORE! MUST SEE!

16. 2016-06-17
    soldstatus $99,000

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    AMAZING Layout and value describes this adorable 2 bedroom 2 bath town home features a GREATROOM with beautiful crown moulding, expanded ceiling height, corner gas log fireplace, and bay window for wonderful natural light! The kitchen offers a beautiful tiled backsplash, pendant lighting, and a TON of CABINETS with extended counter top that offers extra bar seating, PLUS seperate PANTRY! The dining room is an extension of the open concept kitchen and offers ample space for almost any size dining! OVERSIZED laundry, Isolated Master bedroom and bath features a HUGE walk in closet and dual seating shower, covered patio with extra parking, attached single car garage and MORE! MUST SEE!

17. 2016-04-25
    listed $109,900 694-char remark

    Show marketing remark (694 chars)

    AMAZING Layout and value describes this adorable 2 bedroom 2 bath town home features a GREATROOM with beautiful crown moulding, expanded ceiling height, corner gas log fireplace, and bay window for wonderful natural light! The kitchen offers a beautiful tiled backsplash, pendant lighting, and a TON of CABINETS with extended counter top that offers extra bar seating, PLUS seperate PANTRY! The dining room is an extension of the open concept kitchen and offers ample space for almost any size dining! OVERSIZED laundry, Isolated Master bedroom and bath features a HUGE walk in closet and dual seating shower, covered patio with extra parking, attached single car garage and MORE! MUST SEE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,343
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hartselle City
• NCES district ID: 0101730
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,169
• Composite: 44.88/100
• National rank: #2717
• State rank: #10 of 129 in AL

Livability — Hartselle

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #6515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hartselle, AL
• City population: 26,976
• Population (ZIP): 26,976

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,775 people
• By 2030: 116,979 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 111,800 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 105,181 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 87,736 · -26.1%
• By 2100: 67,624 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.6) · D 23.2% · R 75.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -52.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.6 2020: R+49.2 2016: R+52.4 2012: R+44.5 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.12%
• Current HPI: 242.5778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+72.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $189,999 VMLS
• 2016-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-17 Sold (MLS) $99,000 VMLS
• 2016-04-25 Listed $109,900 VMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +87.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.